5 September 2026, 18:00 UTC

AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis Super League 1 prediction & result

Allwyn Arena, Athens
Full time5 – 0

Final score: AEK Athens FC 5-0 Aris Thessalonikis.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% AEK Athens FC, 29% draw, 24% Aris Thessalonikis — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts AEK Athens FC at 47% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AEK Athens FC99%Draw1%Aris Thessalonikis0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Barnabás Vargaassist: Lovro Majer
11'
Lovro Majer
27'
Llazaros Rota
40'
45'
🔁Giannis Gianniotasout: Sebastián Palacios
45'
🔁Manu Garcíaout: Christian Kouamé
⚽Barnabás Vargaassist: Mijat Gaćinović
62'
64'
🔁Ayotomiwa Dele-Bashiruout: Martin Hongla
64'
🔁Tino Kadewereout: Rafa Mir
⚽Răzvan Marinassist: Lovro Majer
66'
🔁Luka Jovicout: Ambrósini António Cabaça Salvador
68'
🔁Mijat Gaćinovićout: Aboubakary Koita
68'
•Barnabás Varga
72'
⚽Aboubakary Koitaassist: Milan Vitális
75'
🔁Barnabás Vargaout: Petros Mantalos
80'
🔁Răzvan Marinout: Kervin Arriaga
80'
•Petros Mantalos
82'
82'
🔁Benjamin Garréout: Othman Boussaid
🔁Lovro Majerout: Oleksandr Zubkov
83'
⚽Ambrósini António Cabaça Salvadorassist: Petros Mantalos
90'

Match stats — AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis

60%Possession40%
21Shots7
10On target2
2Corners2

Line-ups

AEK Athens FC 4-4-2
  • 1T. StrakoshaG
  • 12L. RotaD
  • 2H. MoukoudiD
  • 44Filipe RelvasD
  • 3S. PiliosD
  • 14L. MajerM
  • 27M. VitálisM
  • 18R. MarinM
  • 8M. GaćinovićM
  • 19B. VargaF
  • 9L. JovićF
Substitutes
  • 17Dimitrios KaloskamisM
  • 16K. ArriagaM
  • 22C. LykogiannisD
  • 20P. MantalosM
  • 23João MárioM
  • 15M. TodorskiD
  • 21D. VidaD
  • 11A. KoitaF
  • 10O. ZubkovM
Coach: M. Nikolić
Aris Thessalonikis 4-2-3-1
  • 33Ricardo VelhoG
  • 27N. FadigaD
  • 44B. ŠutaloD
  • 97F. JensenD
  • 3O. RichardsD
  • 20T. Dele-BashiruM
  • 10U. RačićM
  • 7B. GarréM
  • 5Manu GarcíaM
  • 70G. GianniotasM
  • 9T. KadewereF
Substitutes
  • 41Konstantinos CharoupasM
  • 1S. DioudisG
  • 18M. HonglaM
  • 8C. KouaméF
  • 21L. MajkićG
  • 17Rafa MirF
  • 80Loren MorónF
  • 34S. PalaciosF
  • 2J. PétrisD
Coach: M. Grigoriou

Form going into AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis

AEK Athens FC

  • D1-1away to Kifisia30 August 2026
  • W4-0Iraklis 190822 August 2026

Aris Thessalonikis

  • W2-1OFI30 August 2026
  • W3-2away to Kalamata22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5AEK Athens FC4220112+98
7Aris Thessalonikis4202510-56

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis

  • 5 September 2026AEK Athens FC 5–0 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
  • 11 January 2026Aris Thessalonikis 1–1 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
  • 23 November 2025AEK Athens FC 1–0 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
  • 9 March 2025Aris Thessalonikis 0–0 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
  • 3 December 2024Aris Thessalonikis 1–1 AEK Athens FCCup
  • 30 November 2024AEK Athens FC 4–0 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1

Leading scorers: AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis

AEK Athens FC

  • B. Varga4 goals
  • Zini2 goals
  • L. Jović2 goals

Aris Thessalonikis

  • Fabiano2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.