12 September 2026, 13:00 UTC

AIK Stockholm vs Vasteras SK FK Allsvenskan prediction & result

Strawberry Arena, Solna
Full time1 4

Final score: AIK Stockholm 1-4 Vasteras SK FK.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% AIK Stockholm, 22% draw, 22% Vasteras SK FK — fair odds of 1.79, 4.55 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts AIK Stockholm at 56% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 634 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AIK Stockholm0%Draw1%Vasteras SK FK99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Johan Hove (pen)
24'
🔁Lukas Bergquistout: Eskil Smidesang Edh
45'
60'
jens magnussonassist: philip bonde
60'
Bonaventure Lendambi
🔁Linus Carlstrandout: Sixten Gustafsson
62'
62'
🔁Bonaventure Lendambiout: Peter Amoran
62'
🔁Victor Wernerssonout: Ismet Lushaku
62'
🔁Mattias Hellisdalout: Abdelrahman Saidi
69'
Mamadou Diagne
71'
Ismet Lushakuassist: jonathan karlsson
🔁Yannick Emilio Geigerout: linus jareteg
74'
🔁Mads Thychosenout: oskar pukelis
74'
78'
Abdelrahman Saidiassist: Simon Gefvert
🔁Lucas Assadiout: Nikolaj staykov
80'
86'
🔁Jack Tagessonout: Frédéric Nsabiyumva
90+3'
🔁karl gunnarssonout: Levi Hansas

Match stats — AIK Stockholm vs Vasteras SK FK

66%Possession34%
16Shots17
6On target7
5Corners3

Line-ups

AIK Stockholm 4-4-2
  • 15K. NordfeldtG
  • 17M. ThychosenD
  • 34W. OlofssonD
  • 3H. MatthysD
  • 5L. BergquistD
  • 46Yannick GeigerM
  • 8J. HoveM
  • 18A. AliM
  • 48A. KouameM
  • 9L. CarlstrandF
  • 10L. AssadiF
Substitutes
  • 47L. CamaraD
  • 2E. EdhD
  • 16Sixten GustafssonF
  • 20S. HausnerD
  • 28L. JäretegM
  • 30K. JoelssonG
  • 7A. MujanićM
  • 49O. PukelisD
  • 43N. StaykovF
Coach: Jose Riveiro
Vasteras SK FK 3-4-3
  • 34E. JägerG
  • 24J. TagessonD
  • 4P. BondeD
  • 21V. WernerssonD
  • 11S. GefvertM
  • 30M. HellisdalM
  • 8M. DiagneM
  • 15J. KarlssonM
  • 19J. MagnussonF
  • 16Bonaventure LendambiF
  • 5K. GunnarssonF
Substitutes
  • 1A. FagerströmG
  • 26Levi HansasM
  • 28Madiou KeitaD
  • 14I. LushakuM
  • 18Frédéric NsabiyumvaD
  • 7A. BoudahF
  • 23P. AmoranD
  • 9C. RisbjergF
  • 20M. LjungqvistD
Coach: Alexander Rubin

Form going into AIK Stockholm vs Vasteras SK FK

AIK Stockholm

  • D0-0away to Malmo FF7 September 2026
  • W3-2Hammarby FF30 August 2026
  • W3-1away to Djurgardens IF16 August 2026

Vasteras SK FK

  • L0-1Sirius5 September 2026
  • W3-1away to BK Hacken29 August 2026
  • D0-0Kalmar FF23 August 2026
  • L0-3away to IF Elfsborg14 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7AIK Stockholm219663032-233
8Vasteras SK FK219573235-332

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AIK Stockholm vs Vasteras SK FK

  • 12 September 2026AIK Stockholm 1–4 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
  • 28 June 2026AIK Stockholm 3–2 Vasteras SK FKFriendlies Clubs
  • 17 May 2026Vasteras SK FK 1–1 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
  • 22 February 2026AIK Stockholm 0–2 Vasteras SK FKSvenska Cupen
  • 3 August 2024Vasteras SK FK 1–2 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
  • 1 April 2024AIK Stockholm 1–0 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: AIK Stockholm and Vasteras SK FK

AIK Stockholm

No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 30 league goals as a side.

Vasteras SK FK

  • M. Ladefoged9 goals2 assists
  • A. Taonsa6 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.