8 November 2026, 15:30 UTC

Ajman vs Baniyas SC Pro League prediction & result

Ajman Stadium, Ajman
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Ajman 1-1 Baniyas SC.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Ajman, 26% draw, 29% Baniyas SC — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ajman at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ajman7%Draw90%Baniyas SC3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

36'
Rocky Marciano
45+2'
Khamis Al-Mansoori
45+3'
⚽Saviour Godwinassist: Mahamadou Camara
45+7'
•Saviour Godwin
🔁Mohamed Nasserout: Salem Sulaiman Salem Mobarak
58'
🔁Bilal Yousifout: Lithierry da Silva Neves
58'
🔁Victor Henrique Cardoso Santosout: Anas Mtitache
58'
61'
Khamis Al-Mansoori
63'
🔁Alhassan Koromaout: Suhail Ahmed Al Noobi
63'
🔁Rocky Marcianoout: Youssouf Niakate
⚽Victor Hugo Ramos de Souzaassist: Lourency do Nascimento Rodrigues
71'
🔁Vitor Hugo Brenneisen Vargasout: Yassine Jabri
72'
77'
🔁Jacob Gildas Awouteout: Alassane Diallo
77'
🔁Saviour Godwinout: Mohamed Awad
🔁Saad El Hadaniout: Mohammad Juma Eid
83'
Yuri Matias
84'
90+5'
Suhail Ahmed Al Noobi
•Walid Azarou
90+10'

Match stats — Ajman vs Baniyas SC

69%Possession31%
22Shots10
2On target2
7Corners2
2.31xG1.35

Goals against chances

Ajman1 from 2.31 xGless than the chances were worth
Baniyas SC1 from 1.35 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Ajman 4-4-2
  • 81A. Al HosaniG
  • 12Mohamed NasserD
  • 5G. ZajkovD
  • 44Yuri MatiasD
  • 22Vitor VargasD
  • 99Victor HenriqueM
  • 26Bilal YousefM
  • 6Victor HugoM
  • 7LourencyM
  • 48Saad El HadaniF
  • 9W. AzaroF
Substitutes
  • 17S. GassamaM
  • 23Ahmed Al ZeyoudiD
  • 31Y. JabriM
  • 4S. SulimanD
  • 67A. MittacheM
  • 30Yousuf AhmedG
  • 33LithierryF
  • 40Abdullah Al TamimiG
  • 11Abdulla AbdelazizM
Coach: G. Tufegdžić
Baniyas SC 4-2-3-1
  • 55Fahad Al DhanhaniG
  • 26Khamis Al MansooriD
  • 25N. ĐekovićD
  • 2Mahamadou CamaraD
  • 21Mackenzie HuntD
  • 7Fawaz AwanaM
  • 6J. AwouteM
  • 11Alhassan KoromaM
  • 70A. GʻaniyevM
  • 77S. GodwinM
  • 19R. MarcianoF
Substitutes
  • 79Mohammed AliD
  • 23Khamis Al HammadiD
  • 18S. Al NoobiF
  • 28A. DialloM
  • 33Fadaq AdelG
  • 9Ahmed FawziF
  • 16Khalid HashemiD
  • 72Mohamed Awad AllaF
  • 27B. İnceF
Coach: Hassan Al-Abdooli

Form going into Ajman vs Baniyas SC

Ajman

Pro League

  • L1-3Sharjah FC18 October 2026
  • L2-3Al-Ittihad Kalba11 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Al Nasr6 September 2026
  • L0-3away to Al-Jazira29 August 2026

Baniyas SC

Pro League

  • L0-2Al-Wasl FC16 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Khorfakkan11 September 2026
  • L0-1Hatta SC5 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Al Wahda FC30 August 2026

What these results say

  • Ajman conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Ajman had three goals or more.
  • Ajman failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Baniyas SC did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Baniyas SC failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Baniyas SC conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

United Arab Emirates Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Ajman73131316-310
14Baniyas SC7025613-72

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ajman vs Baniyas SC

  • 9 October 2026Ajman 1–0 Baniyas SCLeague Cup
  • 18 March 2026Ajman 1–1 Baniyas SCPro League
  • 26 September 2025Baniyas SC 0–1 AjmanPro League
  • 14 February 2025Ajman 2–3 Baniyas SCPro League
  • 20 September 2024Baniyas SC 3–1 AjmanPro League
  • 1 June 2024Baniyas SC 1–1 AjmanPro League

Leading scorers: Ajman and Baniyas SC

Ajman

GoalsAssists

  • Victor Henrique31

Baniyas SC

No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ajman and Baniyas SC drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Ajman at 45% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Saviour Godwin 45+3' for Baniyas SC, Victor Hugo Ramos de Souza 71' for Ajman. Sent off: Khamis Al-Mansoori (Baniyas SC) 61'. On expected goals it finished 2.31–1.35.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ajman a 3.3% chance to finish in the bottom two: 1.1% after a win, 3.0% after a draw, 5.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 3.0%.

For Baniyas SC the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 58.0% going in: 44.6% after a win, 58.4% after a draw, 66.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 58.4%.

Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.