8 November 2026, 17:15 UTC

Oldham vs Sheffield Wednesday FA Cup prediction & result

Boundary Park, Oldham
Referee: Martin Woods
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Oldham 2-1 Sheffield Wednesday.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Oldham, 28% draw, 40% Sheffield Wednesday — fair odds of 3.13, 3.57 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sheffield Wednesday at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Oldham3%Draw92%Sheffield Wednesday5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
Di'Shon Bernard
17'
🔁Ashley Maynard Brewerout: Connal Trueman
29'
Yan Valery
⚽Calum Kavanaghassist: Mike·Fondop-Talum
66'
🔁Noah Chilversout: Oliver Hammond
71'
71'
🔁Liam Palmerout: Max Lowe
71'
🔁Jordi Liongolaout: Sean Fusire
71'
🔁Ricardo Almeida Santosout: Kieran Morrison
76'
⚽Davis Keillor-Dunnassist: Sean Fusire
Michael Joseph Mellon
85'
85'
Callum Slattery
90'
Sean Fusire
Gus Scott-Morriss
90+1'
🔁Tom Pettout: Josh Hawkes
90'
🔁Calum Kavanaghout: Elliott Nevitt
97'
Emmanuel Monthe
105'
105'
🔁Jamal Loweout: William Grainger
105'
🔁Yan Valeryout: Ernie Weaver
⚽will sutton
110'

Match stats — Oldham vs Sheffield Wednesday

29%Possession71%
13Shots14
5On target6
2Corners8

Line-ups

Oldham 3-4-1-2
  • 1M. HudsonG
  • 16W. SuttonD
  • 5D. DanielsD
  • 6E. MontheD
  • 2G. Scott-MorrissM
  • 8O. NorburnM
  • 4T. PettM
  • 3J. RobsonM
  • 14N. ChilversM
  • 9M. Fondop-TalumF
  • 10C. KavanaghF
Substitutes
  • 17F. FawunmiF
  • 27O. HammondM
  • 21J. HawkesM
  • 20E. NevittF
  • 19Z. TahirD
  • 24L. TempleD
  • 22Wilson WilsonG
Coach: M. Mellon
Sheffield Wednesday 3-4-3
  • 13A. Maynard-BrewerG
  • 5D. BernardD
  • 4RicardoD
  • 2L. PalmerD
  • 7Y. ValeryM
  • 18Jaden HeskeyM
  • 10B. BannanM
  • 23J. LiongolaM
  • 8C. SlatteryF
  • 9J. LoweF
  • 50D. Keillor-DunnF
Substitutes
  • 24H. GrayF
  • 3M. LoweD
  • 20K. MorrisonM
  • 22G. OtegbayoD
  • 37Jarvis ThorntonM
  • 27C. TruemanG
  • 19W. GraingerF
  • 14S. FusireM
  • 30Ernie WeaverD
Coach: Dave Challinor

Form going into Oldham vs Sheffield Wednesday

Oldham

League Two

  • W1-0away to Northampton3 November 2026
  • L0-1Crawley Town31 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Barnet24 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Walsall20 October 2026

Sheffield Wednesday

League One

  • D1-1Blackpool1 November 2026
  • D1-1Cambridge United27 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Doncaster24 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Notts County20 October 2026

What these results say

  • Oldham failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Oldham conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Oldham had two goals or fewer.
  • Sheffield Wednesday did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Sheffield Wednesday conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Sheffield Wednesday had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Oldham and Sheffield Wednesday in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
20OldhamLeague Two154381621-515
5Sheffield WednesdayLeague One146532514+1123

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: League Two · League One

Head-to-head: Oldham vs Sheffield Wednesday

  • 1 August 2026Oldham 4–0 Sheffield WednesdayFriendlies Clubs
  • 13 August 2012Oldham 2–4 Sheffield WednesdayLeague Cup
  • 9 April 2012Sheffield Wednesday 3–0 OldhamLeague One
  • 10 December 2011Oldham 0–2 Sheffield WednesdayLeague One

Leading scorers: Oldham and Sheffield Wednesday

Oldham

GoalsAssists

  • C. Kavanagh54

Sheffield Wednesday

GoalsAssists

  • J. Lowe52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Oldham beat Sheffield Wednesday 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Sheffield Wednesday at 40% and given a win for Oldham 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Calum Kavanagh 66' for Oldham, Davis Keillor-Dunn 76' for Sheffield Wednesday, will sutton 110' for Oldham. Sent off: Michael Joseph Mellon (Oldham) 85'.

How the call on Oldham v Sheffield Wednesday has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 31% / 27% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 32% / 28% / 40%: the biggest move is Sheffield Wednesday's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Oldham win32%▲ +1
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. Sheffield Wednesday win40%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.