8 November 2026, 12:55 UTC

Al Nasr vs Dubai United Pro League prediction & result

Al Maktoum Stadium, Dubai
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Al Nasr 4-1 Dubai United.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Al Nasr, 22% draw, 26% Dubai United — fair odds of 1.92, 4.55 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al Nasr at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al Nasr99%Draw1%Dubai United0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
⚽Mahmoud Dahoudassist: Willy Semedo
26'
Dieu-Merci Ndembo-Michel
⚽Ajdin Hrusticassist: Mehdi Ghayedi
39'
•Ajdin Hrustic
41'
⚽Kevin Agudeloassist: David Petrovic
47'
⚽Kevin Agudeloassist: Mehdi Ghayedi
54'
61'
🔁Othman Ramadanout: Hamid Yahya Mohamed Al Jabri
61'
🔁Mahmoud Dahoudout: Haris Seferović
61'
🔁Dieu-Merci Ndembo-Michelout: Baidy Kane
Issam Faiz
65'
68'
🔁Adeel Al-Chadliout: Cedrick Steve Nana Djeunou
🔁Issam Faizout: Marius Marin
71'
83'
🔁Moustapha Nameout: Jonas Naafo
🔁Mehdi Ghayediout: Wesley Delgado
84'
🔁Kevin Agudeloout: Felipe de Souza Motta Marins
90'
🔁Ajdin Hrusticout: Nassim Chadli
90+1'
🔁Abdoulaye Sanogoout: Mohammad Abdulbasit
90+1'
⚽Ramón Mierezassist: Nassim Chadli
90+5'

Match stats — Al Nasr vs Dubai United

43%Possession57%
11Shots12
6On target2
2Corners3
1.76xG0.98

Goals against chances

Al Nasr4 from 1.76 xGmore than the chances were worth
Dubai United1 from 0.98 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al Nasr 4-2-3-1
  • 12Ahmed ShambihG
  • 24Zayed SultanD
  • 15Abdoulaye SanogoD
  • 4GláuberD
  • 55D. PetrovićD
  • 19L. MilivojevićM
  • 57I. FaizM
  • 7K. AgudeloM
  • 70A. HrustićM
  • 10M. GhaediM
  • 13R. MierezF
Substitutes
  • 2Salem SultanD
  • 21Abdulla IdreesD
  • 5Mohammad AbdulbasitM
  • 9C. BediaF
  • 77N. ChadliF
  • 53Adli MohamedG
  • 17Wesley DelgadoF
  • 8M. MarinM
  • 30João MoreiraD
Coach: Milos Milojevic
Dubai United 4-1-4-1
  • 26S. LekovićG
  • 3O. JamalD
  • 15A. PuricD
  • 66K. A. Al HassaniD
  • 2B. NagoroD
  • 25M. NameM
  • 30Adeel Al ChadliM
  • 5A. KarimiM
  • 81M. DahoudM
  • 10Willy SemedoM
  • 17D. Ndembo-MichelF
Substitutes
  • 13Inayat NoorG
  • 29C. NanaD
  • 23Jonas NaafoM
  • 6Majid SurourD
  • 8Baidi DiakiteM
  • 7Pape GuèyeF
  • 22Mohammed Yousuf GhulamM
  • 88Habib Al FardanM
  • 4Sultan Abu DakenM
Coach: A. Pirlo

Form going into Al Nasr vs Dubai United

Al Nasr

Pro League

  • W2-0Hatta SC17 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Al-Jazira10 September 2026
  • L1-2Ajman6 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Al Ain29 August 2026

Dubai United

Pro League

  • L1-5away to Al-Dhafra16 October 2026
  • D1-1Shabab Al Ahli Dubai10 September 2026
  • L3-4away to Sharjah FC5 September 2026
  • W4-1Al-Ittihad Kalba28 August 2026

What these results say

  • Al Nasr scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Al Nasr failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Al Nasr conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Dubai United scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Dubai United conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Dubai United.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

United Arab Emirates Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Al Nasr7322128+411
11Dubai United72141422-87

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al Nasr vs Dubai United

  • 20 September 2026Al Nasr 3–1 Dubai UnitedLeague Cup

Leading scorers: Al Nasr and Dubai United

Al Nasr

GoalsAssists

  • R. Mierez21
  • K. Agudelo20

Dubai United

GoalsAssists

  • Willy Semedo42
  • Adeel Al Chadli22
  • S. Babicka21

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al Nasr beat Dubai United 4–1. The model had made a win for Al Nasr its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Mahmoud Dahoud 8' for Dubai United, Ajdin Hrustic 39' for Al Nasr, Kevin Agudelo 47' for Al Nasr, Kevin Agudelo 54' for Al Nasr, Ramón Mierez 90+5' for Al Nasr. On expected goals it finished 1.76–0.98.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Dubai United a 10.9% chance to finish in the bottom two: 4.4% after a win, 9.1% after a draw, 13.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.4%, 2.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.