16 October 2026, 20:30 UTC

Deportivo Cuenca vs Tecnico Universitario Liga Pro prediction & result

Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar, Cuenca
Referee: Robert Cabrera
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Deportivo Cuenca 2-1 Tecnico Universitario.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Deportivo Cuenca, 29% draw, 25% Tecnico Universitario — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Deportivo Cuenca at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽E. Mesa (OG)
10'
20'
Jonathan Alexis Majao Aguayo
Melvin Diaz
31'
33'
Diego Armas
40'
⚽Wagner Eriberto Caicedo Peraltaassist: Johan Bocanegra
Carlos Arboleda
45'
🔁Eddie Guevaraout: Gian Nardelli
45'
🔁Jeremy Mejíaout: David Gonzalez
61'
66'
🔁Wagner Eriberto Caicedo Peraltaout: Heuyín Anel Guardia González
73'
🔁Bagner Delgadoout: Adrian Cela
73'
🔁Cesar Castanoout: Anthony Castilo
🔁Melvin Diazout: Edison Vega
75'
🔁Matías Klimowiczout: Jorge Ordonez
75'
🔁Lucas Mancinelliout: Cristhian Benalcazar
75'
79'
🔁Johan Bocanegraout: Luis Estupiñan
79'
🔁Jonathan Alexis Majao Aguayoout: Kener Arce
⚽Cristhian Benalcazar
90'
90+5'
Stiwar Mena Serna

Match stats — Deportivo Cuenca vs Tecnico Universitario

55%Possession45%
18Shots20
6On target5
13Corners5
1.54xG0.82

Goals against chances

Deportivo Cuenca2 from 1.54 xGabout what the chances were worth
Tecnico Universitario1 from 0.82 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Deportivo Cuenca 4-1-4-1
  • 1F. FerreroG
  • 23E. GuevaraD
  • 28P. BoolsenD
  • 6S. PostelD
  • 37C. ArboledaD
  • 30M. MaccariM
  • 7Lucas Eduardo MancinelliM
  • 16J. MejiaM
  • 53Yeltzin Hernán Erique VilliguaM
  • 19Melvin Fabricio Díaz CanenciaM
  • 29M. KlimowiczF
Substitutes
  • 25Marcos Andrés López CabreraD
  • 49David GonzálezM
  • 20B. GarcíaM
  • 12Ethan Gabriel Minda HumananteG
  • 2Ignacio Ariel Mosquera ArroyoD
  • 3G. NardelliD
  • 43J. OrdoñezF
  • 18I. PiedraD
  • 11G. RiveroF
Coach: A. Yllana
Tecnico Universitario 4-4-2
  • 1S. RazzetoG
  • 23E. MesaD
  • 13J. AnayaD
  • 5S. MenaD
  • 85Y. ArceD
  • 10J. BocanegraM
  • 70C. CastañoM
  • 33J. MajaoM
  • 25B. DelgadoM
  • 8D. ArmasF
  • 90W. CaicedoF
Substitutes
  • 12Ayrton MoralesG
  • 9H. GuardiaF
  • 7L. EstupiñánF
  • 79C. CueroD
  • 53Rafael Francisco Chila MaciasM
  • 29A. CelaM
  • 19Anthony CastiloF
  • 15F. CastillloM
  • 67M. CarrascoM
Coach: Ismael Blanco

Form going into Deportivo Cuenca vs Tecnico Universitario

Deportivo Cuenca

Liga Pro

  • D0-0away to Orense SC11 October 2026

Tecnico Universitario

Liga Pro

  • L0-1away to Manta FC10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Pro table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Deportivo Cuenca36138153342-947
15Tecnico Universitario36114213549-1437

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Deportivo Cuenca vs Tecnico Universitario

  • 29 August 2026Tecnico Universitario 3–1 Deportivo CuencaLiga Pro
  • 2 May 2026Deportivo Cuenca 2–1 Tecnico UniversitarioLiga Pro
  • 14 September 2025Tecnico Universitario 0–2 Deportivo CuencaLiga Pro
  • 17 May 2025Deportivo Cuenca 2–0 Tecnico UniversitarioLiga Pro
  • 5 October 2024Deportivo Cuenca 1–1 Tecnico UniversitarioLiga Pro

The result against the call

Deportivo Cuenca beat Tecnico Universitario 2–1. The model had made a win for Deportivo Cuenca its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: E. Mesa (own goal) 10' for Deportivo Cuenca, Wagner Eriberto Caicedo Peralta 40' for Tecnico Universitario, Cristhian Benalcazar 90' for Deportivo Cuenca. On expected goals it finished 1.54–0.82.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Deportivo Cuenca a 20.7% chance to win the league: 27.4% after a win, 16.2% after a draw, 10.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.4%, 6.7 points higher than before the match.

For Tecnico Universitario the question was the chance to win the league, 2.6% going in: 5.5% after a win, 2.4% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 1.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Liga Pro season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Deportivo Cuenca v Tecnico Universitario has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 43% / 30% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 46% / 29% / 25%: the biggest move is Deportivo Cuenca's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Deportivo Cuenca win46%▲ +3
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Tecnico Universitario win25%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.