Al-Nassr vs Abha Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al-Nassr 2-1 Abha.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Al-Nassr, 27% draw, 24% Abha — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Saudi Pro League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Nassr at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Nassr vs Abha
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 24BentoG
- 12N. BoushalD
- 3M. SimakanD
- 26I. MartinezD
- 6S. Al NasserD
- 20AngeloM
- 17A. Al KhaibariM
- 11Samu CostaM
- 10S. ManeM
- 9A. Al HamdanF
- 7C. RonaldoF
- 1N. Al AqidiG
- 4N. Al SharariD
- 5A. Al AmriD
- 83S. Al NajdiD
- 23A. YahyaM
- 8H. AbdulkareemM
- 56R. Al GhamdiM
- 14S. Al NajeiM
- 60S. HaqawiF
- 16D. LeonG
- 39M. Al-ZaidD
- 3J. GaariD
- 37A. HindiD
- 80S. Al JohaniD
- 11A. GoryM
- 10N. FekirM
- 19A. Al FahadM
- 7F. Al GhamdiM
- 17A. DarisiM
- 44M. BatshuayiF
- 21A. Al Bouq
- 66N. Al Gulaymish
- 28B. Al MutairiM
- 4B. Al SayyaliM
- 12K. Al ShamraniD
- 6F. Al SubianiM
- 29M. Y. Dawran M.M
- 9K. BoumedmedF
- 20K. Al Qahtani
Form going into Al-Nassr vs Abha
Al-Nassr
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Al-Ittihad5 September 2026
Abha
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Al-Ettifaq4 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 11 | +17 | 28 |
| 18 | Abha | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Al-Nassr and Abha
Al-Nassr
GoalsAssists
- Cristiano Ronaldo80
- Ângelo53
Abha
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al-Nassr beat Abha 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Al-Nassr at 49%. The goals: C. Ronaldo 22' for Al-Nassr, A. Al Hamdan 58' for Al-Nassr, N. Fekir 75' for Abha. On expected goals it finished 1.34–0.26.
How the call on Al-Nassr v Abha has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 52% / 26% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 49% / 27% / 24%: the biggest move is Al-Nassr's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Al-Nassr win49%▼ −3
- Draw27%▲ +1
- Abha win24%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.