Al Kholood vs Al Shabab Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al Kholood 2-1 Al Shabab.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Al Kholood, 27% draw, 26% Al Shabab — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Saudi Pro League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Al Kholood at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al Kholood vs Al Shabab
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. M. Yousef H.G
- 15R. SolanD
- 5E. UtkusD
- 25M. CamaraD
- 38S. PinasD
- 39A. Al DawsariM
- 8S. CisseM
- 77L. EssombaM
- 10I. KortajarenaM
- 11C. da CostaM
- 22J. DominguesF
- 30M. Al ShammariG
- 23Y. MadaniD
- 7S. Al ShehriD
- 47A. Al ObaidD
- 24O. Abdulghani
- 67M. Al Rashidi
- 70M. SawanM
- 26Y. Al ZubaidiF
- 27A. Al AjianF
- 1M. DiawG
- 17M. Al ThaniD
- 4T. JedvajD
- 3M. T. BarryD
- 21D. Al AnaziD
- 8J. BrownhillM
- 29Y. AdliM
- 22H. Al HammamiM
- 11D. PodenceM
- 10Y. CarrascoM
- 9R. B. Martinez TobinsonF
- 33M. Al MahasnehG
- 2M. Al ShwirekhD
- 55A. Al BulayhiD
- 5A. MakkiD
- 40A. Al AsmariM
- 74A. Al HadhoodF
- 6A. Al NashriM
- 97M. KhadhariF
- 37A. Matuq
Form going into Al Kholood vs Al Shabab
Al Kholood
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Al-Fayha3 September 2026
- W3-1Al-Ahli Jeddah29 August 2026
Al Shabab
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Al-Hilal4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Hazm30 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Al Kholood | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 12 |
| 10 | Al Shabab | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Al Kholood and Al Shabab
Al Kholood
GoalsAssists
- J. Domingues63
Al Shabab
GoalsAssists
- Y. Carrasco61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al Kholood beat Al Shabab 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Al Kholood at 47%. The goals: R. B. Martinez Tobinson 6' for Al Shabab, I. Kortajarena 30' for Al Kholood, A. Al Dawsari 87' for Al Kholood. On expected goals it finished 2.19–0.62.
How the call on Al Kholood v Al Shabab has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 47% / 27% / 26%: the biggest move is Al Kholood's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Al Kholood win47%▲ +3
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Al Shabab win26%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.