9 September 2026, 18:00 UTC

Al-Fateh vs Al Diriyah Pro League prediction & result

Al Fateh club stadium, Al-Hofuf
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Al-Fateh 1-2 Al Diriyah.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Al-Fateh, 31% draw, 31% Al Diriyah — fair odds of 2.63, 3.23 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Fateh at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al-Fateh0%Draw4%Al Diriyah96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Abdulelah Al Khaibari
3'
28'
⚽D. Nunez (pen)
⚽F. Al Abdulwahedassist: M. Batna
35'
Adrian Šemper
45+5'
45'
⚽A. Boulbina (pen)
🔁F. Al Abdulwahedout: A. Al Hassan
58'
Kennedy Boateng
60'
65'
•Adil Boulbina
🔁A. R. Al Khaibreout: Bin Mahmoud
71'
🔁M. Lixandruout: F. Al Zubaidi
71'
81'
🔁A. Al Malkiout: S. Al Farhan
81'
🔁D. Nunezout: M. Al Nemer
🔁K. Boatengout: Z. Al Jari
86'
🔁A. I. Al Khaibariout: S. Al Sharfa
87'
90+4'
Sultan Farhan
90+1'
🔁A. Boulbinaout: M. Hameran
90+6'
🔁E. Millotout: H. Al Qahtani
90+1'
🔁C. Diandyout: H. Bahebri

Match stats — Al-Fateh vs Al Diriyah

60%Possession40%
13Shots13
4On target3
5Corners4
1.28xG2.53

Goals against chances

Al-Fateh1 from 1.28 xGabout what the chances were worth
Al Diriyah2 from 2.53 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al-Fateh 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. SemperG
  • 22A. R. Al Khaibre
  • 3K. BoatengD
  • 78A. Al SuwailemD
  • 16A. I. Al KhaibariD
  • 8M. LixandruM
  • 28Z. YoussoufM
  • 11M. BatnaM
  • 80F. Al AbdulwahedM
  • 10L. HaraslinM
  • 9W. KangaF
Substitutes
  • 94W. Al EneziG
  • 87Bin Mahmoud
  • 4Z. Al JariD
  • 63M. Al ShqaqD
  • 18A. Al FawazM
  • 6A. Al HassanM
  • 7F. Al ZubaidiF
  • 49S. Al SharfaF
  • 20H. EssadakM
Coach: Khaled Al Atwi
Al Diriyah
  • 22N. VasiljG
  • 2A. Al FarajD
  • 99C. MbembaD
  • 19B. DjimsitiD
  • 16K. A. Al Sibyani H.D
  • 88A. Al MalkiM
  • 5I. GueyeM
  • 17C. DiandyM
  • 20E. MillotM
  • 10A. BoulbinaM
  • 29D. NunezF
Substitutes
  • 33W. AbdullahG
  • 87Q. LajamiD
  • 12T. Wadi
  • 21M. HameranD
  • 78K. Al AsiriD
  • 52H. Al QahtaniM
  • 6S. Al FarhanM
  • 11H. BahebriF
  • 75M. Al NemerF

Form going into Al-Fateh vs Al Diriyah

Al-Fateh

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to Al Taawon5 September 2026
  • D0-0Al-Ittihad29 August 2026

Al Diriyah

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2Al-Qadisiyah FC3 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Al-Ettifaq29 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Saudi Arabia Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Al-Fateh121381025-156
8Al Diriyah124351013-315

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Al Diriyah won 2–1 at Al-Fateh. The model had leaned towards a win for Al-Fateh at 38% and given a win for Al Diriyah 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: D. Nunez (penalty) 28' for Al Diriyah, F. Al Abdulwahed 35' for Al-Fateh, A. Boulbina (penalty) 45' for Al Diriyah. On expected goals it finished 1.28–2.53.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.