Alanyaspor vs Göztepe Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Alanyaspor 2-2 Göztepe.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Alanyaspor, 25% draw, 26% Göztepe — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Alanyaspor at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Alanyaspor vs Göztepe
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 48Paulo VictorG
- 94Florent HadergjonajD
- 3Nuno LimaD
- 5Fidan AlitiD
- 11Ruan Pereira DuarteD
- 55Baran Ali GezekM
- 20Fatih AksoyM
- 42Gaius MakoutaM
- 22Paolo FernandesF
- 9Omar Ben AliF
- 12Meschak EliaF
- 88Yusuf ÖzdemirM
- 10Ianis HagiM
- 19Iván CédricF
- 23Mert Furkan BayramG
- 4Bedirhan ÖzyurtD
- 8Enes KeskinM
- 26İzzet ÇelikM
- 17Arda UsluoğluF
- 16Hwang Ui-JoF
- 1Arda ÖzçimenG
- 13Ege YildirimD
- 4Taha AltıkardeşD
- 26Malcom BokeleD
- 2Arda KurtulanM
- 5RhaldneyM
- 6Alex MatosM
- 12Richard AkonnorM
- 8Alexis AntunesF
- 7André HenriqueF
- 9Juan Santos da SilvaF
- 39JandersonF
- 10Efkan BekiroğluM
- 33Mehmet Şamil ÖztürkG
- 18Tino AnjorinM
- 22Sinclair ArmstrongF
- 14Bekir Turaç BökeF
Form going into Alanyaspor vs Göztepe
Alanyaspor
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Rizespor7 September 2026
- L1-2away to Eyüpspor30 August 2026
- W1-0Beşiktaş23 August 2026
- D1-1away to Gaziantep FK15 August 2026
Göztepe
All competitions we cover
- L2-4Gaziantep FK7 September 2026
- L2-3away to Galatasaray29 August 2026
- L0-1Gençlerbirliği S.K.23 August 2026
- D3-3away to Samsunspor17 August 2026
What these results say
- Alanyaspor scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Alanyaspor had two goals or fewer.
- Göztepe did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Göztepe conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Göztepe scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Alanyaspor | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 12 |
| 10 | Göztepe | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Alanyaspor vs Göztepe
- 14 March 2026Göztepe 2–2 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 19 October 2025Alanyaspor 1–0 GöztepeSüper Lig
- 2 February 2025Göztepe 0–1 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 23 August 2024Alanyaspor 1–1 GöztepeSüper Lig
- 19 March 2022Göztepe 0–2 AlanyasporSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Alanyaspor and Göztepe
Alanyaspor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Göztepe
GoalsAssists
- Juan71
- André Henrique41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Alanyaspor and Göztepe drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Alanyaspor at 49% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Rhaldney 28' for Göztepe, P. Fernandes 63' for Alanyaspor, Juan (penalty) 73' for Göztepe, G. Makouta 75' for Alanyaspor. On expected goals it finished 1.70–1.74.
How the call on Alanyaspor v Göztepe has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 40% / 28% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 49% / 25% / 26%: the biggest move is Alanyaspor's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- Alanyaspor win49%▲ +9
- Draw25%▼ −3
- Göztepe win26%▼ −6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.