Alaves vs Villarreal La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Alaves 1-0 Villarreal.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Alaves, 25% draw, 23% Villarreal — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Alaves at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Alaves vs Villarreal
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. SiveraG
- 7A. PerezD
- 14N. TenagliaD
- 16V. KoskiD
- 17Jonny OttoD
- 21A. RebbachD
- 19P. IbanezM
- 8A. BlancoM
- 18M. RodriguezM
- 11T. MartinezF
- 15L. BoyeF
- 13A. RodriguezG
- 2N. ValentiniD
- 3YusiD
- 12H. Novoa RamosF
- 4D. SuarezM
- 10C. AlenaM
- 23C. ProtesoniM
- 6A. GuevaraM
- 20A. Manas
- 1Luiz JuniorG
- 15S. MourinoD
- 8J. FoythD
- 12R. VeigaD
- 20C. RomeroD
- 19N. PepeM
- 14S. ComesanaM
- 18P. GueyeM
- 17T. BuchananM
- 7G. MorenoF
- 9G. MikautadzeF
- 25P. GulacsiG
- 2L. CostaD
- 23S. CardonaD
- 3A. FreemanD
- 6P. NavarroD
- 10A. MoleiroM
- 5A. DiattaM
- 24N. SalibaM
- 26C. MaciaM
Form going into Alaves vs Villarreal
Alaves
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Rayo Vallecano20 August 2026
- W3-0Getafe15 August 2026
Villarreal
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Atletico Madrid23 August 2026
- D2-2away to Racing Santander16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Alaves | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 13 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Alaves vs Villarreal
- 13 March 2026Alaves 1–1 VillarrealLa Liga
- 10 January 2026Villarreal 3–1 AlavesLa Liga
- 8 March 2025Alaves 1–0 VillarrealLa Liga
- 9 November 2024Villarreal 3–0 AlavesLa Liga
- 10 February 2024Alaves 1–1 VillarrealLa Liga
Leading scorers: Alaves and Villarreal
Alaves
GoalsAssists
- L. Boyé50
- M. Díaz44
Villarreal
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Alaves beat Villarreal 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Alaves at 52%. The goal: L. Boye 31' for Alaves. On expected goals it finished 0.81–1.28.