28 August 2026, 19:30 UTC

Alaves vs Villarreal La Liga prediction & result

Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Alaves 1-0 Villarreal.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Alaves, 25% draw, 23% Villarreal — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Alaves at 52% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Alaves97%Draw3%Villarreal0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽L. Boyeassist: A. Perez
31'
Abderrahman Rebbach
48'
🔁M. Rodriguezout: Yusi
54'
🔁T. Martinezout: M. Diaz
54'
62'
🔁S. Mourinoout: A. Freeman
62'
🔁S. Comesanaout: A. Perez
63'
🔁T. Buchananout: A. Moleiro
70'
🔁G. Morenoout: I. Akhomach
🔁A. Rebbachout: D. Suarez
71'
🔁A. Perezout: C. Protesoni
71'
🔁L. Boyeout: A. Manas
82'
82'
🔁G. Mikautadzeout: T. Oluwaseyi
86'
Nicolas Pépé
Mariano Díaz
89'
Antonio Sivera
90+2'
90+2'
Renato Veiga

Match stats — Alaves vs Villarreal

25%Possession75%
9Shots18
2On target6
5Corners9
0.81xG1.28

Goals against chances

Alaves1 from 0.81 xGabout what the chances were worth
Villarreal0 from 1.28 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Alaves 5-3-2
  • 1A. SiveraG
  • 7A. PerezD
  • 14N. TenagliaD
  • 16V. KoskiD
  • 17Jonny OttoD
  • 21A. RebbachD
  • 19P. IbanezM
  • 8A. BlancoM
  • 18M. RodriguezM
  • 11T. MartinezF
  • 15L. BoyeF
Substitutes
  • 13A. RodriguezG
  • 2N. ValentiniD
  • 3YusiD
  • 12H. Novoa RamosF
  • 4D. SuarezM
  • 10C. AlenaM
  • 23C. ProtesoniM
  • 6A. GuevaraM
  • 20A. Manas
Coach: Quique Sanchez Flores
Villarreal 4-4-2
  • 1Luiz JuniorG
  • 15S. MourinoD
  • 8J. FoythD
  • 12R. VeigaD
  • 20C. RomeroD
  • 19N. PepeM
  • 14S. ComesanaM
  • 18P. GueyeM
  • 17T. BuchananM
  • 7G. MorenoF
  • 9G. MikautadzeF
Substitutes
  • 25P. GulacsiG
  • 2L. CostaD
  • 23S. CardonaD
  • 3A. FreemanD
  • 6P. NavarroD
  • 10A. MoleiroM
  • 5A. DiattaM
  • 24N. SalibaM
  • 26C. MaciaM
Coach: Inigo Perez

Form going into Alaves vs Villarreal

Alaves

  • D1-1away to Rayo Vallecano20 August 2026

Villarreal

  • D2-2away to Atletico Madrid23 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Racing Santander16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Alaves6312116+510
19Villarreal5023710-32

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Alaves vs Villarreal

  • 28 August 2026Alaves 1–0 VillarrealLa Liga
  • 13 March 2026Alaves 1–1 VillarrealLa Liga
  • 10 January 2026Villarreal 3–1 AlavesLa Liga
  • 8 March 2025Alaves 1–0 VillarrealLa Liga
  • 9 November 2024Villarreal 3–0 AlavesLa Liga
  • 10 February 2024Alaves 1–1 VillarrealLa Liga

Leading scorers: Alaves and Villarreal

Alaves

  • L. Boyé4 goals
  • M. Díaz3 goals3 assists

Villarreal

No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.