28 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Tenerife vs Sporting Gijon Segunda División prediction & result

Santa Cruz de Tenerife
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Tenerife 0-1 Sporting Gijon.

Before kick-off the model made it 59% Tenerife, 22% draw, 19% Sporting Gijon — fair odds of 1.69, 4.55 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Tenerife at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Tenerife0%Draw6%Sporting Gijon94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

44'
Guille Rosas
44'
•Guille Rosas
46'
Nacho Martín
🔁B. Diocouout: N. Lopez
46'
57'
Pablo Vázquez
59'
🔁A. Cuencaout: D. Sanchez
59'
🔁N. Martinout: M. Loum
59'
🔁K. de la Fuenteout: A. Sarco
60'
Mamadou Loum
64'
Aimar Duñabeitia
69'
⚽A. Sarcoassist: N. Iosifov
70'
🔁N. Iosifovout: P. Garcia
🔁Juanjo Sanchezout: A. Krdzalic
75'
🔁N. Gilout: D. Fernandez
75'
79'
🔁C. Gelabert Pinaout: I. Martinez
🔁V. Morenoout: M. Pecar
82'
🔁Enricout: J. de Miguel
82'
David Rodríguez Ramos
90+2'

Match stats — Tenerife vs Sporting Gijon

51%Possession49%
11Shots5
4On target1
4Corners1

Line-ups

Tenerife 4-4-2
  • 1D. MartinG
  • 19C. AlvarezD
  • 12A. LandazuriD
  • 4J. LeonD
  • 2D. RodriguezD
  • 26B. DiocouM
  • 6Juanjo SanchezM
  • 16J. AlvarezM
  • 10N. GilM
  • 18EnricF
  • 8V. MorenoF
Substitutes
  • 40G. De VuystG
  • 3R. JureskinD
  • 21M. MateuD
  • 5J. MorenoD
  • 20M. PittonM
  • 23A. KrdzalicM
  • 15FabricioM
  • 29D. FernandezM
  • 24I. ChapelaF
Coach: Alvaro Cervera
Sporting Gijon 4-2-3-1
  • 1R. YanezG
  • 2G. RosasD
  • 24A. DunabeitiaD
  • 15P. VazquezD
  • 44A. CuencaD
  • 6N. MartinM
  • 14A. CorrederaM
  • 11K. de la FuenteM
  • 10C. Gelabert PinaM
  • 20N. IosifovM
  • 19J. OteroF
Substitutes
  • 13E. AranaG
  • 3P. GarciaD
  • 26I. MartinezD
  • 23J. SaenzD
  • 4E. GularteD
  • 5D. SanchezD
  • 21M. LoumM
  • 27E. PrendesF
  • 16A. SarcoF
Coach: Nicolas Larcamon

Form going into Tenerife vs Sporting Gijon

Tenerife

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Almeria23 August 2026
  • W3-1away to Eibar16 August 2026

Sporting Gijon

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Burgos23 August 2026
  • D0-0Sabadell17 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Tenerife123631517-215
8Sporting Gijon147251617-123

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Tenerife vs Sporting Gijon

  • 5 April 2025Sporting Gijon 1–3 TenerifeSegunda División
  • 22 September 2024Tenerife 1–1 Sporting GijonSegunda División
  • 20 January 2024Tenerife 1–2 Sporting GijonSegunda División
  • 17 September 2023Sporting Gijon 2–1 TenerifeSegunda División
  • 25 February 2023Sporting Gijon 1–0 TenerifeSegunda División
  • 30 September 2022Tenerife 1–1 Sporting GijonSegunda División

Leading scorers: Tenerife and Sporting Gijon

Tenerife

GoalsAssists

  • Enric Gallego81

Sporting Gijon

No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sporting Gijon won 1–0 at Tenerife. The model had leaned towards a win for Tenerife at 59% and given a win for Sporting Gijon 19%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goal: A. Sarco 69' for Sporting Gijon.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.