28 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart Bundesliga prediction & result

Allianz Arena, Munich
Full time5 – 1

Final score: Bayern München 5-1 VfB Stuttgart.

Before kick-off the model made it 66% Bayern München, 18% draw, 16% VfB Stuttgart — fair odds of 1.52, 5.56 and 6.25.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bayern München at 66%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽D. Upamecanoassist: J. Kimmich
21'
52'
⚽J. Vagnoman
⚽M. Oliseassist: J. Kimmich
55'
⚽J. Vagnoman (OG)
57'
🔁N. Brownout: I. Saibari
61'
62'
Jeff Chabot
62'
🔁T. Tomasout: J. Leweling
63'
🔁D. Pejcinovicout: E. Demirovic
•Michael Olise
64'
68'
Finn Jeltsch
🔁A. Daviesout: J. Stanisic
74'
74'
🔁D. Undavout: L. Stergiou
74'
🔁J. Chabotout: B. El Khannouss
Kim Min-jae
81'
⚽A. Pavlovicassist: I. Saibari
82'
🔁Kim Min-Jaeout: J. Tah
84'
🔁A. Pavlovicout: T. Bischof
84'
🔁H. Kaneout: L. Karl
84'
88'
🔁A. Stillerout: C. Andres
90+3'
Grischa Prömel
⚽L. Diazassist: I. Saibari
90'

Match stats — Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart

59%Possession41%
21Shots11
9On target4
9Corners3
3.93xG0.86

Goals against chances

Bayern München5 from 3.93 xGmore than the chances were worth
VfB Stuttgart1 from 0.86 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bayern München 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. NeuerG
  • 27K. LaimerD
  • 2D. UpamecanoD
  • 3Kim Min-JaeD
  • 19A. DaviesD
  • 6J. KimmichM
  • 45A. PavlovicM
  • 17M. OliseM
  • 11N. BrownM
  • 14L. DiazM
  • 9H. KaneF
Substitutes
  • 40J. UrbigG
  • 4J. TahD
  • 21H. ItoD
  • 44J. StanisicD
  • 34I. SaibariM
  • 8T. BischofM
  • 42L. KarlM
  • 39B. Sapoko NdiayeM
  • 22A. IbrahimovicM
Coach: Vincent Kompany
VfB Stuttgart 3-4-2-1
  • 1F. BredlowG
  • 29F. JeltschD
  • 24J. ChabotD
  • 3R. HendriksD
  • 4J. VagnomanM
  • 21G. PromelM
  • 6A. StillerM
  • 7M. MittelstadtM
  • 17D. PejcinovicF
  • 26D. UndavF
  • 8T. TomasF
Substitutes
  • 33M. FunkG
  • 20L. StergiouD
  • 2A. Al DakhilD
  • 16A. KarazorM
  • 30C. AndresM
  • 11B. El KhannoussM
  • 9E. DemirovicF
  • 18J. LewelingF
  • 27B. BouananiF
Coach: Sebastian Hoeness

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Bayern München9630299+2021
8VfB Stuttgart94051515012

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart

  • 23 May 2026Bayern München 3–0 VfB StuttgartDFB Pokal
  • 19 April 2026Bayern München 4–2 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
  • 6 December 2025VfB Stuttgart 0–5 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
  • 16 August 2025VfB Stuttgart 1–2 Bayern MünchenSuper Cup
  • 28 February 2025VfB Stuttgart 1–3 Bayern MünchenBundesliga

The full Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart record →

Leading scorers: Bayern München and VfB Stuttgart

Bayern München

GoalsAssists

  • M. Olise63
  • H. Kane48
  • L. Díaz41

VfB Stuttgart

GoalsAssists

  • E. Demirović50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bayern München beat VfB Stuttgart 5–1. The model had made a win for Bayern München its most likely outcome, at 66%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: D. Upamecano 21' for Bayern München, J. Vagnoman 52' for VfB Stuttgart, M. Olise 55' for Bayern München, J. Vagnoman (own goal) 57' for Bayern München, A. Pavlovic 82' for Bayern München, L. Diaz 90' for Bayern München. On expected goals it finished 3.93–0.86.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.