Racing Santander vs Elche La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Racing Santander 3-2 Elche.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Racing Santander, 25% draw, 23% Elche — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Racing Santander at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Racing Santander vs Elche
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Julen AgirrezabalaG
- 2Alvaro MantillaD
- 4Manu HernandoD
- 16Facundo GonzálezD
- 17Jorge SalinasD
- 23Iván MartínM
- 8Gustavo PuertaM
- 11Andrés MartínM
- 20Sergio CanalesM
- 10Iñigo VicenteM
- 21Yassir ZabiriF
- 18Matteo PratiM
- 7Giorgi GuliashviliF
- 12Asier VillalibreF
- 14Maguette GueyeM
- 1Simon ErikssonG
- 5Pablo RamónD
- 30Carlos SánchezD
- 36Sergio MartinezM
- 34Diego DíazM
- 1Matías DituroG
- 2Buba SangaréD
- 22David AffengruberD
- 23Víctor ChustD
- 6Pedro BigasD
- 11Germán ValeraD
- 10Facundo BuonanotteM
- 12Gonzalo VillarM
- 8Marc AguadoM
- 29Ali HouaryM
- 14Fernando NiñoF
- 20Tete MorenteF
- 9Ezequiel PonceF
- 47Javi MorcilloM
- 21Lucas CepedaF
- 17JosanM
- 43Alejandro IturbeG
- 26Matia BarzićD
- 16Martim NetoM
- 5Federico RedondoM
Form going into Racing Santander vs Elche
Racing Santander
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Getafe23 August 2026
- D2-2Villarreal16 August 2026
Elche
All competitions we cover
- L0-5Barcelona23 August 2026
- D1-1away to Deportivo La Coruna17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Racing Santander | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 14 |
| 18 | Elche | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Racing Santander vs Elche
- 2 March 2025Racing Santander 2–0 ElcheSegunda División
- 19 December 2024Elche 3–0 Racing SantanderSegunda División
- 4 May 2024Racing Santander 3–1 ElcheSegunda División
- 2 September 2023Elche 1–1 Racing SantanderSegunda División
- 4 July 2020Racing Santander 1–2 ElcheSegunda División
Leading scorers: Racing Santander and Elche
Racing Santander
GoalsAssists
- M. Zabiri90
Elche
GoalsAssists
- Fer Niño60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Racing Santander beat Elche 3–2. The model had made a win for Racing Santander its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Y. Zabiri 15' for Racing Santander, Y. Zabiri 21' for Racing Santander, Y. Zabiri 36' for Racing Santander, Buba Sangare 78' for Elche, F. Nino 79' for Elche. On expected goals it finished 1.50–1.06.