8 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

Tractor Sazi vs Esteghlal FC Persian Gulf Pro League prediction & result

Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium, Tabriz
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Tractor Sazi 1-1 Esteghlal FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Tractor Sazi, 30% draw, 27% Esteghlal FC — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Tractor Sazi at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Tractor Sazi4%Draw94%Esteghlal FC2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

28'
⚽S. Saharkhizanassist: H. Goudarzi
46'
🔁J. Asaniout: M. Eslami
🔁M. Naderiout: M. Zakipour
53'
66'
🔁A. Koushkiout: J. Masharipov
⚽M. Hosseini
75'
76'
🔁E. Gholizadehout: R. Cheshmi
🔁M. Hosseiniout: M. Fazeli
85'
🔁S. Moghanlouout: T. Strkalj
85'
🔁D. Esmaeilifarout: S. Moharrami
88'
88'
A. Razzaghinia
90'
S. Hardani
90+1'
🔁S. Saharkhizanout: M. G. Heydari
F. Faraji
90+2'
T. Strkalj
90+5'

Form going into Tractor Sazi vs Esteghlal FC

Tractor Sazi

Persian Gulf Pro League

  • L0-1away to Esteghlal Khuzestan10 September 2026
  • W1-0Gol Gohar5 September 2026

Esteghlal FC

Persian Gulf Pro League

  • W1-0Paykan10 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Persian Gulf Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Tractor Sazi11722145+923
5Esteghlal FC11560145+921

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Tractor Sazi vs Esteghlal FC

  • 18 January 2026Esteghlal FC 0–0 Tractor SaziPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 19 August 2025Tractor Sazi 0–1 Esteghlal FCPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 11 August 2025Tractor Sazi 2–1 Esteghlal FCSuper Cup
  • 4 April 2025Tractor Sazi 2–1 Esteghlal FCPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 31 October 2024Esteghlal FC 0–2 Tractor SaziPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 1 May 2024Tractor Sazi 0–0 Esteghlal FCPersian Gulf Pro League

The result against the call

Tractor Sazi and Esteghlal FC drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Tractor Sazi at 43% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: S. Saharkhizan 28' for Esteghlal FC, M. Hosseini 75' for Tractor Sazi.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Tractor Sazi a 40.3% chance to finish top of the regular season: 59.2% after a win, 32.7% after a draw, 13.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 32.7%, 7.6 points lower than before the match.

For Esteghlal FC the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 19.1% going in: 42.6% after a win, 17.9% after a draw, 5.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 17.9%, 1.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Tractor Sazi v Esteghlal FC has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 40% / 31% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 43% / 30% / 27%: the biggest move is Tractor Sazi's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Tractor Sazi win43%▲ +3
  2. Draw30%▼ −1
  3. Esteghlal FC win27%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.