8 October 2026, 15:15 UTC

Sepahan FC vs Fajr Sepasi Persian Gulf Pro League prediction & result

Naghsh-e-Jahan Stadium, Isfahan
Full time6 – 1

Final score: Sepahan FC 6-1 Fajr Sepasi.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Sepahan FC, 27% draw, 22% Fajr Sepasi — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sepahan FC at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sepahan FC99%Draw1%Fajr Sepasi0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽A. Yousefiassist: O. Noorafkan
13'
16'
M. Nasiri
⚽E. Hajsafiassist: A. Hajieydi
38'
39'
🔁M. Nasiriout: M. Bahraminejad
45+2'
⚽Y. Rostami
46'
🔁S. Norouziout: A. Helichi
⚽E. Hajsafi
48'
51'
M. Faramarzi
52'
🔁M. Moradiout: E. Falamarzi
⚽A. Yousefiassist: E. Hajsafi
53'
59'
🔁M. Rigiout: E. Pahlevan
59'
🔁M. Sharifiout: S. Fadakar
⚽M. Limouchiassist: O. Noorafkan
70'
⚽A. Shafiedoostassist: E. Hajsafi
81'

Persian Gulf Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Sepahan FC12822237+1626
7Fajr Sepasi114521213-117

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sepahan FC vs Fajr Sepasi

  • 5 December 2025Sepahan FC 2–0 Fajr SepasiPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 6 March 2022Sepahan FC 2–0 Fajr SepasiPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 24 November 2021Fajr Sepasi 0–2 Sepahan FCPersian Gulf Pro League

The result against the call

Sepahan FC beat Fajr Sepasi 6–1. The model had made a win for Sepahan FC its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: A. Yousefi 13' for Sepahan FC, E. Hajsafi 38' for Sepahan FC, Y. Rostami 45+2' for Fajr Sepasi, E. Hajsafi 48' for Sepahan FC, A. Yousefi 53' for Sepahan FC, M. Limouchi 70' for Sepahan FC, A. Shafiedoost 81' for Sepahan FC.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sepahan FC a 34.8% chance to finish in the top four: 45.1% after a win, 25.1% after a draw, 15.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 45.1%, 10.3 points higher than before the match.

For Fajr Sepasi the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 9.6% going in: under 1% after a win, 6.3% after a draw, 13.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.6%, 4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sepahan FC v Fajr Sepasi has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 47% / 29% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 51% / 27% / 22%: the biggest move is Sepahan FC's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Sepahan FC win51%▲ +4
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Fajr Sepasi win22%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.