Amarante vs Portimonense Segunda Liga prediction & result
Final score: Amarante 1-2 Portimonense.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Amarante, 29% draw, 29% Portimonense — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Amarante at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Amarante vs Portimonense
Line-ups
- 65Diogo FigueiredoG
- 3Feliciano MendesD
- 4João FilipeD
- 2Gonçalo CunhaD
- 28Diogo CostaD
- 26A. ZangreM
- 8TokinhoM
- 5Joao RicardoF
- 78Simão SilvaM
- 91Rudi AlmeidaF
- 88Rúben AlvesF
- 1Rafael FloresG
- 51Diogo FernandesG
- 15Rodrigo BeirãoD
- 36Ian CustódioD
- 6Rodrigo GuedesM
- 85Nito GomesD
- 14A. IdacheF
- 9cardosoM
- 16Rodrigo CarvalhoD
- 1DuduG
- 6S. NevesD
- 4Italo CabelinhoD
- 3Jarleysom AmurimD
- 11Diogo CabralF
- 15XavierM
- 21Yanis da RochaM
- 17João ReisD
- 18Tiago FerreiraF
- 9S. Yépié YépiéM
- 7Danio DjassiF
- 65WellingtonG
- 93Welinton JúniorF
- 38wermesonM
- 80Felipe FaveroM
- 8João CasimiroM
- 2EdneyF
- 79PaulinhoF
- 88JaderF
- 73Marlon JúniorD
Form going into Amarante vs Portimonense
Amarante
Segunda Liga
- D2-2União de Leiria13 September 2026
Portimonense
Segunda Liga
- L0-2Tondela12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Amarante | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Portimonense | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Amarante and Portimonense
Amarante
GoalsAssists
- Gonçalo Cunha10
Portimonense
GoalsAssists
- Danio Djassi11
- Welinton Júnior10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Portimonense won 2–1 at Amarante. The model had leaned towards a win for Amarante at 42% and given a win for Portimonense 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Dânio Djassi 65' for Portimonense, Welinton Junior 75' for Portimonense, Goncalo cunha 90+5' for Amarante.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Amarante a 35.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 30.1% after a win, 37.2% after a draw, 42.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 42.1%, 6.6 points higher than before the match.
For Portimonense the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 24.2% going in: 17.4% after a win, 22.2% after a draw, 28.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.4%, 6.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Amarante v Portimonense has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 39% / 30% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 42% / 29% / 29%: the biggest move is Amarante's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Amarante win42%▲ +3
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Portimonense win29%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.