10 October 2026, 19:30 UTC

Vizela vs Sporting CP B Segunda Liga prediction & result

Caldas de Vizela
Referee: Flavio Jesus
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Vizela 0-2 Sporting CP B.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Vizela, 29% draw, 28% Sporting CP B — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Vizela at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Vizela0%Draw1%Sporting CP B99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Matías Lacava
10'
29'
⚽Mauro Coutoassist: Samuel Loureiro Carvalho Justo
45+1'
⚽Paulo Cardosoassist: Rafael Nel
🔁Giovani Bambaout: Neto
46'
🔁Jójóout: luis mina
46'
46'
🔁Micael Sanhaout: Bidu
46'
🔁Eduardo Felicissimoout: Kauã Wellhington Oliveira Pinto
46'
🔁Rodrigo Diasout: Moncef Zekri
Anthony Carter
56'
69'
🔁Paulo Cardosoout: Salvador Blopa
🔁Jean-Pierre Rhynerout: José Sampaio
72'
74'
Rafael Nel
🔁Anthony Carterout: Yassin Fortune
80'
🔁Miguel Tavaresout: Natanael Ntolla
80'
84'
🔁Rodrigo Rodriguesout: Ivanildo da Silva Mendes
Neto
85'

Match stats — Vizela vs Sporting CP B

56%Possession44%
12Shots10
4On target5
5Corners2

Line-ups

Vizela 4-2-3-1
  • 1Antonio GomisG
  • 77JójóD
  • 13Luís RochaD
  • 4J. RhynerD
  • 20B. GodwinD
  • 8A. BastunovM
  • 6Giovani BambaM
  • 17Miguel TavaresF
  • 24H. MörschelM
  • 36M. LacavaF
  • 99A. CarterF
Substitutes
  • 23Y. FortunéF
  • 9Manu GarridoF
  • 95A. TraoréM
  • 31NetoM
  • 11N. ThioF
  • 55A. HristovD
  • 37José SampaioD
  • 19A. VulićG
  • 26L. MinaD
Coach: Ronald Ramírez
Sporting CP B 4-2-3-1
  • 99Francisco SilvaG
  • 76Rodrigo RodriguesM
  • 73Eduardo FelicíssimoM
  • 95Lucas TaiboD
  • 50Rodrigo DiasD
  • 40M. TanlongoM
  • 96Samuel JustoM
  • 47M. SanhaF
  • 78Mauro CoutoF
  • 87Paulo CardosoM
  • 9Rafael Ferreira NelF
Substitutes
  • 82Gabriel SilvaF
  • 85Rafael MotaD
  • 18M. ZekriD
  • 59Kauã OliveiraM
  • 62I. da Silva MendesM
  • 70Salvador BlopaD
  • 83Z. BafdiliM
  • 88BiduF
  • 74Guilherme PiresG
Coach: Tiago Fernandes

Form going into Vizela vs Sporting CP B

Vizela

Segunda Liga

  • D2-2away to FC Porto B14 September 2026

Sporting CP B

Segunda Liga

  • L1-2Lusitânia Lourosa14 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Vizela104331211+115
2Sporting CP B10712168+822

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Vizela vs Sporting CP B

  • 26 April 2026Vizela 1–0 Sporting CP BSegunda Liga
  • 14 December 2025Sporting CP B 0–1 VizelaSegunda Liga
  • 9 February 2017Vizela 2–1 Sporting CP BSegunda Liga
  • 29 August 2016Sporting CP B 1–2 VizelaSegunda Liga

Leading scorers: Vizela and Sporting CP B

Vizela

No player in Segunda Liga's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Sporting CP B

GoalsAssists

  • Mauro Couto10
  • Paulo Cardoso10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sporting CP B won 2–0 at Vizela. The model had leaned towards a win for Vizela at 43% and given a win for Sporting CP B 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Mauro Couto 29' for Sporting CP B, Paulo Cardoso 45+1' for Sporting CP B.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vizela a 21.5% chance to finish in the top four: 24.9% after a win, 19.2% after a draw, 17.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.0%, 4.5 points lower than before the match.

For Sporting CP B the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 21.6% going in: 27.8% after a win, 21.3% after a draw, 17.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.8%, 6.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Vizela v Sporting CP B has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 40% / 30% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 43% / 29% / 28%: the biggest move is Vizela's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Vizela win43%▲ +3
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Sporting CP B win28%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.