11 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

União de Leiria vs Academica Segunda Liga prediction & result

Leiria
Referee: Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca
Full time0 – 2

Final score: União de Leiria 0-2 Academica.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% União de Leiria, 21% draw, 21% Academica — fair odds of 1.72, 4.76 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

União de Leiria at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

União de Leiria0%Draw1%Academica99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
Ricardo Teixeira
36'
⚽Leandro Silva (pen)
🔁Kouassi Eboueout: Tharlley Oliveira Da Silva
46'
🔁Hugo Masakiout: Marc Baró
46'
46'
🔁Ricardo Teixeiraout: Gabriel Miranda Rodrigues
49'
⚽Kevin Zohiassist: Amadou Coundoul
50'
🔁Kakaout: Alioune Mané
59'
🔁Leverton Pierreout: Marcos Paulo
🔁José Nabil Ondo Onva Adjuguout: Damien Loppy
66'
🔁Jose Pedro Barros Goncalvesout: Jair silva da goncalves
66'
67'
Leandro Silva
69'
🔁Leandro Silvaout: Hugo Nunes
69'
🔁Kevin Zohiout: Rui Gomes
Miguel Ângelo Moreira de Magalhães
75'
🔁jaiminhoout: Samuel Ntanda-Lukisa
81'
85'
Afonso Rodrigues
Ibrahima Kalil·Guirassy
85'
87'
🔁Afonso Rodriguesout: Ilies Faure

Match stats — União de Leiria vs Academica

60%Possession40%
19Shots12
5On target5
8Corners5

Line-ups

União de Leiria 4-4-2
  • 99J. OdehnalG
  • 68MagaD
  • 44MarceloD
  • 16Zé PedroD
  • 70H. MasakiF
  • 21JaimeF
  • 6E. KouassiM
  • 98IbrahimaM
  • 17Pablo FernándezM
  • 7Jose AdjuguF
  • 9Juan MuñozF
Substitutes
  • 82S. LukisaF
  • 80Christian JoelG
  • 8RekoM
  • 25Diogo AmadoM
  • 88Diogo MartinsM
  • 29D. LoppyF
  • 34QuilmaD
  • 3Marc BaróD
  • 18Tharlley Oliveira Da SilvaM
Coach: Fábio Pereira
Academica 4-3-3
  • 12Victor BragaG
  • 2XaviD
  • 3Ricardo TeixeiraD
  • 4Guilherme Willian da SilvaD
  • 15KakaD
  • 25L. PierreM
  • 5Leandro SilvaD
  • 20J. SinisterraM
  • 8K. ZohiF
  • 92A. CoundoulM
  • 19Afonso RodriguesF
Substitutes
  • 9Martim TavaresF
  • 10I. FaureF
  • 54NiD
  • 46H. NunesM
  • 26T. SoaresM
  • 23Rui GomesF
  • 13KauanD
  • 1Nuno MacedoG
  • 17Marcos PauloM
Coach: António Barbosa

Form going into União de Leiria vs Academica

União de Leiria

Segunda Liga

  • D2-2away to Amarante13 September 2026

Academica

Segunda Liga

  • L0-3Benfica B11 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5União de Leiria105231613+317
6Academica105141613+316

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: União de Leiria vs Academica

  • 12 July 2024Academica 0–0 União de LeiriaFriendlies Clubs
  • 15 January 2023Academica 1–3 União de LeiriaLiga 3
  • 3 September 2022União de Leiria 1–1 AcademicaLiga 3
  • 20 January 2012Academica 0–0 União de LeiriaPrimeira Liga
  • 15 August 2011União de Leiria 1–2 AcademicaPrimeira Liga

Leading scorers: União de Leiria and Academica

União de Leiria

No player in Segunda Liga's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Academica

GoalsAssists

  • K. Zohi10
  • Leandro Silva10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Academica won 2–0 at União de Leiria. The model had leaned towards a win for União de Leiria at 58% and given a win for Academica 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Leandro Silva (penalty) 36' for Academica, Kevin Zohi 49' for Academica.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave União de Leiria a 29.1% chance to finish in the top four: 31.6% after a win, 25.1% after a draw, 21.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.9%, 7.2 points lower than before the match.

For Academica the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 26.1% going in: 19.1% after a win, 25.8% after a draw, 28.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.1%, 7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on União de Leiria v Academica has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 52% / 24% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 58% / 21% / 21%: the biggest move is União de Leiria's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. União de Leiria win58%▲ +6
  2. Draw21%▼ −3
  3. Academica win21%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.