10 October 2026, 14:30 UTC

Leixoes vs FC Porto B Segunda Liga prediction & result

Matosinhos
Referee: Jose Bessa
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Leixoes 1-2 FC Porto B.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Leixoes, 24% draw, 27% FC Porto B — fair odds of 2.04, 4.17 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Leixoes at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Leixoes4%Draw91%FC Porto B5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Matheus Costa
16'
47'
Bernardo Lima
Hugo Faria
48'
52'
•
Matheus Costa
54'
🔁Salvador Agraout: Lourenço Figueiredo Henriques
57'
Miguel Ferreira de Sousa
61'
🔁Luccas Paraizoout: Bryan Rochez
64'
🔁Miguel Ferreira de Sousaout: Arthur Baggio
64'
65'
🔁Yoan Pereiraout: Martim cunha
65'
🔁Bernardo Limaout: Tiago Gonçalves da Silva
65'
🔁Joao·Teixeiraout: Duarte Cunha
66'
⚽Eduardo Ferreira
Bryan Rochez
69'
⚽Bryan Rochez
76'
🔁Simaozinhoout: Serif Nhaga
78'
🔁Paulinhoout: Fernando Fonseca
78'
83'
🔁Eduardo Ferreiraout: Trofim Melnichenko
🔁José Manuel Bica Reisout: Kaique Rodrigues Barbosa Santos
85'
87'
🔁Gabriel Veronout: Cardoso varela
87'
🔁Mateus Mideout: joao abreu
Serif Nhaga
89'
90+4'
⚽Kauê Rodrigues Pessanha
A. Balde
90+10'

Match stats — Leixoes vs FC Porto B

59%Possession41%
16Shots6
5On target6
10Corners1

Line-ups

Leixoes 4-1-3-2
  • 51I. StefanovićG
  • 77PaulinhoD
  • 63H. FariaD
  • 4Matheus CostaD
  • 15SimãozinhoD
  • 6A. BaldeF
  • 8Miguel SousaM
  • 7Salvador AgraF
  • 22Cláudio Vítor Rodrigues AraújoM
  • 33Luccas FeitosaF
  • 9BicaF
Substitutes
  • 44S. CommeyD
  • 30Serif NhagaD
  • 14Alysson SilvaD
  • 3Lourenço HenriquesD
  • 2Fernando FonsecaD
  • 26Caio SeccoG
  • 79RokaF
  • 35B. RochezF
  • 71KaiqueF
Coach: Fangueiro
FC Porto B 4-2-3-1
  • 91Gonçalo RibeiroG
  • 76DinisD
  • 64Luís GomesD
  • 93Tiago FerreiraD
  • 55Y. PereiraD
  • 92João Pedro Moreira TeixeiraM
  • 66Bernardo LimaM
  • 97Gabriel VeronF
  • 89Mateus MideF
  • 56KauêM
  • 53E. FerreiraF
Substitutes
  • 95Anhá CandéF
  • 57Duarte CunhaF
  • 84Martim CunhaD
  • 85Francisco FerreiraD
  • 63salvador gomesD
  • 70Eirik GranaasM
  • 43T. MelnichenkoF
  • 54António RibeiroD
  • 41G. SilvaG
Coach: João Brandão

Form going into Leixoes vs FC Porto B

Leixoes

Segunda Liga

  • D0-0away to Torreense11 September 2026

FC Porto B

Segunda Liga

  • D2-2Vizela14 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Leixoes103251317-411
16FC Porto B10226818-108

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Leixoes vs FC Porto B

  • 20 April 2026FC Porto B 0–3 LeixoesSegunda Liga
  • 6 December 2025Leixoes 2–4 FC Porto BSegunda Liga
  • 16 March 2025FC Porto B 0–1 LeixoesSegunda Liga
  • 27 October 2024Leixoes 3–0 FC Porto BSegunda Liga
  • 24 February 2024FC Porto B 0–2 LeixoesSegunda Liga
  • 1 October 2023Leixoes 1–3 FC Porto BSegunda Liga

The result against the call

FC Porto B won 2–1 at Leixoes. The model had leaned towards a win for Leixoes at 49% and given a win for FC Porto B 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Eduardo Ferreira 66' for FC Porto B, Bryan Rochez 76' for Leixoes, Kauê Rodrigues Pessanha 90+4' for FC Porto B. Sent off: Matheus Costa (Leixoes) 54'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Leixoes a 23.6% chance to finish in the top four: 26.6% after a win, 21.7% after a draw, 17.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.7%, 5.9 points lower than before the match.

For FC Porto B the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 23.9% going in: 17.8% after a win, 24.0% after a draw, 26.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.8%, 6.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Leixoes v FC Porto B has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 45% / 26% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 49% / 24% / 27%: the biggest move is Leixoes's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Leixoes win49%▲ +4
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. FC Porto B win27%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.