Liga Portugal 2 predictions & fixtures

Sunday 15 November — 3 matches

14:00 UTC Portimonense vs Academica — model 36% / 29% / 35%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.78 · 3.45 · 2.86. Tight game · draw in reach
15:30 UTC Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa — model 55% / 23% / 22%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.82 · 4.35 · 4.55. Edge: Penafiel
18:00 UTC Leixoes vs Chaves — model 52% / 22% / 26%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.92 · 4.55 · 3.85. Evenly matched

Sunday 22 November — 1 match

14:00 UTC Vizela vs Feirense — model 48% / 30% / 22%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.08 · 3.33 · 4.55. Edge: Vizela

Friday 27 November — 1 match

18:00 UTC Feirense vs Portimonense — model 36% / 34% / 30%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.78 · 2.94 · 3.33. Evenly matched

Saturday 28 November — 4 matches

11:00 UTC AVS vs Leixoes — model 52% / 23% / 25%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.92 · 4.35 · 4.00. Evenly matched
14:00 UTC Chaves vs Tondela — model 36% / 26% / 38%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.78 · 3.85 · 2.63. Tight game · draw in reach
15:30 UTC Farense vs União de Leiria — model 45% / 25% / 30%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.22 · 4.00 · 3.33. Evenly matched
18:00 UTC Sporting CP B vs Amarante — model 54% / 26% / 20%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.85 · 3.85 · 5.00. Edge: Sporting CP B

Sunday 29 November — 3 matches

11:00 UTC Lusitânia Lourosa vs Vizela — model 47% / 27% / 26%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.13 · 3.70 · 3.85. Evenly matched
14:00 UTC Felgueiras 1932 vs FC Porto B — model 43% / 27% / 30%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.33 · 3.70 · 3.33. Evenly matched
15:30 UTC Penafiel vs Benfica B — model 44% / 26% / 30%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.27 · 3.85 · 3.33. Evenly matched

Last round: the model's hits and misses

6–9 November: the model called the result of 1 of 9 matches. Across all 37 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 41% of results.

AVS 2–2 Vizela — the model said 47% / 28% / 25%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Felgueiras 1932 3–3 Leixoes — the model said 46% / 26% / 28%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
Chaves 2–3 Penafiel — the model said 29% / 25% / 46%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
Academica 1–1 Amarante — the model said 56% / 24% / 20%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
FC Porto B 0–1 Portimonense — the model said 51% / 26% / 23%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Feirense 1–0 Lusitânia Lourosa — the model said 31% / 30% / 39%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
Farense 2–3 Benfica B — the model said 36% / 29% / 35%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Sporting CP B 1–1 Tondela — the model said 49% / 27% / 24%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Torreense 2–3 União de Leiria — the model said 45% / 27% / 28%, most likely 1-0: result missed.

Liga Portugal 2 so far

Top of the table

1. Penafiel — 22 pts from 10 (7W 1D 2L, goals 22–10)
2. Sporting CP B — 22 pts from 10 (7W 1D 2L, goals 16–8)
3. Benfica B — 20 pts from 10 (6W 2D 2L, goals 14–8)
4. Lusitânia Lourosa — 19 pts from 10 (5W 4D 1L, goals 15–9)
5. União de Leiria — 17 pts from 10 (5W 2D 3L, goals 16–13)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 216 matches left: Penafiel 35.3%, Benfica B 24.4%, Sporting CP B 19.7%.

Leading scorers: Danio Djassi (Portimonense) 1 goal, Welinton Júnior (Portimonense) 1 goal, André Rodrigues (Chaves) 1 goal.