31 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

Amed vs Trabzonspor Süper Lig prediction & result

Diyarbakir Stadium
Full time2 1

Final score: Amed 2-1 Trabzonspor.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Amed, 28% draw, 33% Trabzonspor — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Amed at 39% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Amed4%Draw92%Trabzonspor4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
M. Salahassist: E. Muci
34'
🔁N. Savioloout: A. Simsir
39'
S. Lopes Cabral
44'
C. Nwaiwu
M. Diagne (pen)assist: M. Diagne
45+5'
Y. Sor
45+5'
🔁Y. Sorout: G. Orban
50'
59'
🔁Fabinhoout: O. Tufan
🔁D. Batesout: M. Yesil
61'
🔁G. Gulout: F. Soyalp
61'
71'
🔁S. Lopes Cabralout: M. Mimaroglu
71'
🔁E. Muciout: W. Pina
S. Ballet
75'
🔁M. Diagneout: A. Cisse
79'
U. Meras
84'
F. Soyalp
85'
G. Orbanassist: M. Yesil
90'
G. Orban
90+2'
90+9'
S. Savic
E. Krasniqi
90+9'

Match stats — Amed vs Trabzonspor

40%Possession60%
17Shots8
7On target5
2Corners5
2.39xG0.84

Goals against chances

Amed2 from 2.39 xGabout what the chances were worth
Trabzonspor1 from 0.84 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Amed 4-2-3-1
  • 40Alban LafontG
  • 7Ermal KrasniqiD
  • 4David Robert BatesD
  • 5Lumbardh DellovaD
  • 17Umut MeraşD
  • 18Gökhan GülM
  • 22Rayan RavelosonM
  • 10Samuel BalletM
  • 91Dia SabaM
  • 11Yira Collins SorM
  • 45Mbaye DiagneF
Substitutes
  • 99Gift OrbanF
  • 21Mehmet YeşilD
  • 8Furkan SoyalpM
  • 33Amadou CisséD
  • 27Burak BozanG
  • 3Miraç AcerD
  • 47Kahraman DemirtaşD
  • 93Rayan LutinM
  • 6Cem ÜstündagM
Coach: Besnik Hasi
Trabzonspor 4-2-3-1
  • 24André OnanaG
  • 55Sidny Lopes CabralD
  • 27Chibuike NwaiwuD
  • 15Stefan SavićD
  • 19Mustafa EskihellaçD
  • 6FabinhoM
  • 57Melih KabasakalM
  • 7Ernest MuçiM
  • 10Mohamed SalahM
  • 70Noah SavioloM
  • 30Paul OnuachuF
Substitutes
  • 58Aral ŞimşirM
  • 11Ozan TufanM
  • 20Wagner PinaD
  • 77Metehan MimaroğluF
  • 25Onuralp ÇevikkanG
  • 1Ahmet Doğan YıldırımG
  • 39Cenk ÖzkaçarD
  • 4Samet AkaydınD
  • 14Umut NayirF
Coach: Fatih Tekke

Form going into Amed vs Trabzonspor

Amed

  • L0-2away to Kocaelispor24 August 2026
  • W3-0Erzurumspor FK16 August 2026

Trabzonspor

  • W2-1Başakşehir23 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Kasımpaşa15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Amed5311125+710
9Trabzonspor521295+47

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Amed vs Trabzonspor

  • 31 August 2026Amed 2–1 TrabzonsporSüper Lig

Leading scorers: Amed and Trabzonspor

Amed

  • G. Orban6 goals1 assists

Trabzonspor

  • Mohamed Salah4 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.