30 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa Süper Lig prediction & result

Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Istanbul
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Başakşehir 1-1 Kasımpaşa.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Başakşehir, 27% draw, 24% Kasımpaşa — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Başakşehir at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Başakşehir5%Draw92%Kasımpaşa3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Jerome Opoku
3'
Olivier Kemen
13'
⚽E. Shomurodovassist: U. Bozok
18'
🔁A. Fayzullaevout: Y. Sari
46'
46'
🔁A. Dagbasiout: F. Diabate
46'
🔁G. Yalcinout: A. Kol
55'
Cláudio Winck
🔁O. Kemenout: O. Ergun
64'
71'
🔁E. Mendesout: M. Rafferty
🔁U. Bozokout: D. Selke
73'
🔁A. Skov Olsenout: H. Gureler
74'
81'
⚽F. Diabateassist: A. Benedyczak
87'
🔁A. Karapoout: E. Boz
Hamza Güreler
90'

Match stats — Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa

65%Possession35%
12Shots12
2On target3
5Corners3
0.76xG1.59

Goals against chances

Başakşehir1 from 0.76 xGabout what the chances were worth
Kasımpaşa1 from 1.59 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Başakşehir 4-2-3-1
  • 16M. SengezerG
  • 42O. SahinerD
  • 23E. BayramD
  • 3J. OpokuD
  • 21C. OperiD
  • 8O. KemenM
  • 20U. GunesM
  • 70A. Skov OlsenM
  • 14E. ShomurodovM
  • 11A. FayzullaevM
  • 17U. BozokF
Substitutes
  • 98D. Dilmen
  • 33M. KarbownikD
  • 15H. GurelerD
  • 19B. OzcanM
  • 18J. KaluzinskiM
  • 4O. ErgunM
  • 9D. SelkeF
  • 7Y. SariF
  • 77I. BrnicF
Coach: Nuri Sahin
Kasımpaşa 5-4-1
  • 1A. GianniotisG
  • 2C. WinckD
  • 4A. ArousD
  • 30A. DagbasiD
  • 27M. IlieD
  • 45A. KarapoD
  • 9A. BenedyczakM
  • 16A. BaldurssonM
  • 26K. DemirbayM
  • 51E. MendesM
  • 50G. YalcinF
Substitutes
  • 25A. YanarG
  • 14K. MouangaD
  • 24A. AriciD
  • 8A. MujdeM
  • 66E. BozM
  • 34F. DiabateF
  • 7A. KolF
  • 19M. RaffertyM
  • 23S. Alkas
Coach: Emre Belozoglu

Form going into Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa

Başakşehir

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Trabzonspor23 August 2026
  • W2-0Kocaelispor16 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Inter Turku30 July 2026
  • D1-1Inter Turku22 July 2026

Kasımpaşa

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Çorum FK22 August 2026
  • D1-1Trabzonspor15 August 2026

What these results say

  • Başakşehir failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Başakşehir scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Başakşehir conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Başakşehir115241917+217
5Kasımpaşa115511711+620

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa

  • 24 April 2026Başakşehir 4–0 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
  • 29 November 2025Kasımpaşa 1–3 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
  • 18 May 2025Kasımpaşa 2–3 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
  • 23 December 2024Başakşehir 2–2 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
  • 5 May 2024Başakşehir 4–1 KasımpaşaSüper Lig

The full Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa record →

Leading scorers: Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa

Başakşehir

GoalsAssists

  • E. Shomurodov81

Kasımpaşa

GoalsAssists

  • A. Benedyczak72

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Başakşehir at 49% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: E. Shomurodov 18' for Başakşehir, F. Diabate 81' for Kasımpaşa. On expected goals it finished 0.76–1.59.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.