30 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa Süper Lig prediction & result

Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Istanbul
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Başakşehir 1-1 Kasımpaşa.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Başakşehir, 27% draw, 24% Kasımpaşa — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Başakşehir at 49% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Başakşehir5%Draw92%Kasımpaşa3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Jerome Opoku
3'
Olivier Kemen
13'
⚽E. Shomurodovassist: U. Bozok
18'
🔁A. Fayzullaevout: Y. Sari
46'
46'
🔁A. Dagbasiout: F. Diabate
46'
🔁G. Yalcinout: A. Kol
55'
Cláudio Winck
🔁O. Kemenout: O. Ergun
64'
71'
🔁E. Mendesout: M. Rafferty
🔁U. Bozokout: D. Selke
73'
🔁A. Skov Olsenout: H. Gureler
74'
81'
⚽F. Diabateassist: A. Benedyczak
87'
🔁A. Karapoout: E. Boz
Hamza Güreler
90'

Match stats — Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa

65%Possession35%
12Shots12
2On target3
5Corners3
0.76xG1.59

Goals against chances

Başakşehir1 from 0.76 xGabout what the chances were worth
Kasımpaşa1 from 1.59 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Başakşehir 4-2-3-1
  • 16M. SengezerG
  • 42O. SahinerD
  • 23E. BayramD
  • 3J. OpokuD
  • 21C. OperiD
  • 8O. KemenM
  • 20U. GunesM
  • 70A. Skov OlsenM
  • 14E. ShomurodovM
  • 11A. FayzullaevM
  • 17U. BozokF
Substitutes
  • 98D. Dilmen
  • 33M. KarbownikD
  • 15H. GurelerD
  • 19B. OzcanM
  • 18J. KaluzinskiM
  • 4O. ErgunM
  • 9D. SelkeF
  • 7Y. SariF
  • 77I. BrnicF
Coach: Nuri Sahin
Kasımpaşa 5-4-1
  • 1A. GianniotisG
  • 2C. WinckD
  • 4A. ArousD
  • 30A. DagbasiD
  • 27M. IlieD
  • 45A. KarapoD
  • 9A. BenedyczakM
  • 16A. BaldurssonM
  • 26K. DemirbayM
  • 51E. MendesM
  • 50G. YalcinF
Substitutes
  • 25A. YanarG
  • 14K. MouangaD
  • 24A. AriciD
  • 8A. MujdeM
  • 66E. BozM
  • 34F. DiabateF
  • 7A. KolF
  • 19M. RaffertyM
  • 23S. Alkas
Coach: Emre Belozoglu

Form going into Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa

Başakşehir

  • L1-2away to Trabzonspor23 August 2026
  • W2-0Kocaelispor16 August 2026

Kasımpaşa

  • W1-0away to Çorum FK22 August 2026
  • D1-1Trabzonspor15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Başakşehir5113611-54
4Kasımpaşa523075+29

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa

  • 30 August 2026Başakşehir 1–1 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
  • 24 April 2026Başakşehir 4–0 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
  • 29 November 2025Kasımpaşa 1–3 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
  • 18 May 2025Kasımpaşa 2–3 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
  • 23 December 2024Başakşehir 2–2 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
  • 5 May 2024Başakşehir 4–1 KasımpaşaSüper Lig

Leading scorers: Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa

Başakşehir

  • E. Shomurodov4 goals

Kasımpaşa

  • A. Benedyczak4 goals1 assists
  • G. Yalçın2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.