Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Samsunspor 0-2 Fenerbahçe.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Samsunspor, 27% draw, 39% Fenerbahçe — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Fenerbahçe at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1O. KocukG
- 2J. MendesD
- 24T. BorevkovicD
- 34G. GuarinoD
- 17L. TomassonD
- 5C. YukselM
- 4E. WattM
- 30S. JarjuM
- 20Y. KayanM
- 11E. KilincM
- 14F. KayaF
- 25B. BayazitG
- 72M. TanD
- 22Y. E. CiftD
- 3I. DrapinskiD
- 23E. Albak
- 8S. OnurM
- 21E. DegirmenciM
- 77A. SousaM
- 42A. SekongoM
- 31EdersonG
- 27N. SemedoD
- 37M. SkriniarD
- 15N. AkeD
- 3A. BrownD
- 6M. GuendouziM
- 91N. KanteM
- 11M. GreenwoodM
- 17I. KahveciM
- 70O. AydinM
- 19V. MuriqiF
- 34M. GunokG
- 13T. CetinG
- 18M. MuldurD
- 14Y. E. DemirD
- 21K. PeprahD
- 22L. MercanD
- 5I. YuksekM
- 28B. ElmazM
- 9R. LukakuF
Form going into Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe
Samsunspor
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Rizespor22 August 2026
- D3-3Göztepe17 August 2026
Fenerbahçe
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Lyon26 August 2026
- W4-2Konyaspor22 August 2026
- D1-1Lyon18 August 2026
- L1-2away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.15 August 2026
- W1-0away to Sturm Graz11 August 2026
What these results say
- Fenerbahçe scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fenerbahçe conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Fenerbahçe.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Samsunspor | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 26 | -15 | 7 |
| 6 | Fenerbahçe | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 10 | +19 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe
- 8 March 2026Fenerbahçe 3–2 SamsunsporSüper Lig
- 6 January 2026Fenerbahçe 2–0 SamsunsporSuper Cup
- 5 October 2025Samsunspor 0–0 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
- 16 March 2025Fenerbahçe 0–0 SamsunsporSüper Lig
- 20 October 2024Samsunspor 2–2 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Samsunspor and Fenerbahçe
Samsunspor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Fenerbahçe
GoalsAssists
- V. Muriqi71
- M. Greenwood62
- İ. Kahveci53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Fenerbahçe won 2–0 at Samsunspor. The model had made a win for Fenerbahçe its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: V. Muriqi 3' for Fenerbahçe, O. Aydin 49' for Fenerbahçe. On expected goals it finished 0.46–1.56.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.