30 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe Süper Lig prediction & result

Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Samsun
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Samsunspor 0-2 Fenerbahçe.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Samsunspor, 27% draw, 39% Fenerbahçe — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Fenerbahçe at 39% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Samsunspor0%Draw1%Fenerbahçe99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
⚽V. Muriqiassist: O. Aydin
🔁F. Kayaout: A. Sekongo
16'
🔁T. Borevkovicout: Y. E. Cift
46'
49'
⚽O. Aydinassist: I. Kahveci
63'
🔁V. Muriqiout: R. Lukaku
64'
🔁M. Greenwoodout: I. Yuksek
🔁Y. Kayanout: A. Sousa
66'
70'
Romelu Lukaku
78'
🔁I. Kahveciout: D. Nene
🔁C. Yukselout: S. Onur
86'
🔁S. Jarjuout: T. Bulbul
86'
86'
🔁O. Aydinout: L. Mercan
86'
🔁M. Guendouziout: B. Elmaz

Match stats — Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe

58%Possession42%
6Shots15
0On target7
1Corners6
0.46xG1.56

Goals against chances

Samsunspor0 from 0.46 xGabout what the chances were worth
Fenerbahçe2 from 1.56 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Samsunspor 4-2-3-1
  • 1O. KocukG
  • 2J. MendesD
  • 24T. BorevkovicD
  • 34G. GuarinoD
  • 17L. TomassonD
  • 5C. YukselM
  • 4E. WattM
  • 30S. JarjuM
  • 20Y. KayanM
  • 11E. KilincM
  • 14F. KayaF
Substitutes
  • 25B. BayazitG
  • 72M. TanD
  • 22Y. E. CiftD
  • 3I. DrapinskiD
  • 23E. Albak
  • 8S. OnurM
  • 21E. DegirmenciM
  • 77A. SousaM
  • 42A. SekongoM
Coach: Thorsten Fink
Fenerbahçe 4-2-3-1
  • 31EdersonG
  • 27N. SemedoD
  • 37M. SkriniarD
  • 15N. AkeD
  • 3A. BrownD
  • 6M. GuendouziM
  • 91N. KanteM
  • 11M. GreenwoodM
  • 17I. KahveciM
  • 70O. AydinM
  • 19V. MuriqiF
Substitutes
  • 34M. GunokG
  • 13T. CetinG
  • 18M. MuldurD
  • 14Y. E. DemirD
  • 21K. PeprahD
  • 22L. MercanD
  • 5I. YuksekM
  • 28B. ElmazM
  • 9R. LukakuF
Coach: Ismail Kartal

Form going into Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe

Samsunspor

  • W2-0away to Rizespor22 August 2026
  • D3-3Göztepe17 August 2026

Fenerbahçe

  • W4-2Konyaspor22 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Samsunspor5113611-54
11Fenerbahçe521286+27

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe

  • 30 August 2026Samsunspor 0–2 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
  • 8 March 2026Fenerbahçe 3–2 SamsunsporSüper Lig
  • 6 January 2026Fenerbahçe 2–0 SamsunsporSuper Cup
  • 5 October 2025Samsunspor 0–0 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
  • 16 March 2025Fenerbahçe 0–0 SamsunsporSüper Lig
  • 20 October 2024Samsunspor 2–2 FenerbahçeSüper Lig

Leading scorers: Samsunspor and Fenerbahçe

Samsunspor

No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Fenerbahçe

  • V. Muriqi2 goals1 assists
  • M. Greenwood2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.