29 October 2026, 23:30 UTC

America de Cali vs Fortaleza FC Primera A prediction & result

Olímpico Pascual Guerrero, Cali
Referee: Camilo Alejandro Colmenares Perez, Colombia
Full time2 – 1

Final score: America de Cali 2-1 Fortaleza FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 61% America de Cali, 24% draw, 15% Fortaleza FC — fair odds of 1.64, 4.17 and 6.67.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

America de Cali at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

America de Cali98%Draw2%Fortaleza FC0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

33'
J. Garcia
🔁E. Tortoleroout: J. Murillo
46'
🔁J. Cavadiaout: J. Escobar
46'
52'
⚽J. Garcia
⚽Y. Guzmanassist: J. Palacios
55'
58'
🔁J. Garciaout: S. Navarro
🔁M. Torresout: D. Rosero
59'
⚽J. Palaciosassist: J. Murillo
63'
🔁T. Angelout: D. Valencia
70'
76'
🔁F. Pulicastroout: T. Wilke
76'
🔁S. Vivasout: A. Larrans
🔁J. Palaciosout: M. Castillo
76'
85'
🔁M. Vazquezout: J. Herrera
85'
🔁S. Cueroout: E. Cabezas

Match stats — America de Cali vs Fortaleza FC

56%Possession44%
17Shots15
7On target8
3Corners3
2.02xG1.1

Goals against chances

America de Cali2 from 2.02 xGabout what the chances were worth
Fortaleza FC1 from 1.10 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

America de Cali
  • 12Juan MontoyaG
  • 18Yani QuinteroD
  • 2Marlon TorresD
  • 24Cristian TovarD
  • 30Omar BertelD
  • 77Edson TortoleroM
  • 15Rafael CarrascalM
  • 6José CavadiaM
  • 88Tilman PalaciosM
  • 21Tomás ÁngelF
  • 10Yeison GuzmánF
Substitutes
  • 5Josen EscobarM
  • 7Jhon MurilloF
  • 3Dany RoseroD
  • 9Daniel ValenciaF
  • 13Mateo Castillo MárquezD
  • 37Alejandro BenítezG
  • 22Nicolás HernándezD
  • 36Jhordy CamachoF
  • 29Camilo AmuM
Coach: David Gonzalez
Fortaleza FC
  • 1Williams BarlasinaG
  • 16Joan CajaresD
  • 6Yesid DíazD
  • 5Jeferson MedinaD
  • 15Santiago CueroD
  • 14Leonardo PicoM
  • 28Santiago VivasM
  • 32Mariano VázquezM
  • 25Juan GarcíaM
  • 24Jhoiner SalasM
  • 19Franco PulicastroF
Substitutes
  • 8Sebastián NavarroM
  • 33Armando LarransM
  • 29Teun WilkeF
  • 4Edwin CabezasD
  • 9Sebastian HerreraF
  • 22Michael BarragánG
  • 3David RamírezD
  • 30Jhon SolisM
  • 10Jhon VelásquezM
Coach: Diego Arias

Form going into America de Cali vs Fortaleza FC

America de Cali

Primera A

  • W3-1Cucuta24 October 2026

Fortaleza FC

Primera A

  • D1-1Deportivo Cali25 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2America de Cali1910633115+1636
20Fortaleza FC191991729-1212

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: America de Cali vs Fortaleza FC

  • 23 April 2026Fortaleza FC 1–2 America de CaliPrimera A
  • 13 September 2025Fortaleza FC 1–0 America de CaliPrimera A
  • 31 March 2025America de Cali 1–0 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
  • 29 September 2024America de Cali 1–1 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
  • 18 March 2024Fortaleza FC 0–0 America de CaliPrimera A

Leading scorers: America de Cali and Fortaleza FC

America de Cali

GoalsAssists

  • Y. Guzmán206

Fortaleza FC

No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

America de Cali beat Fortaleza FC 2–1. The model had made a win for America de Cali its most likely outcome, at 61%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: J. Garcia 52' for Fortaleza FC, Y. Guzman 55' for America de Cali, J. Palacios 63' for America de Cali. On expected goals it finished 2.02–1.10.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave America de Cali a 28.0% chance to finish top of the Clausura: 34.1% after a win, 14.4% after a draw, 8.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.1%, 6.1 points higher than before the match.

For Fortaleza FC the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 80.1% going in: 45.3% after a win, 76.3% after a draw, 86.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 86.6%, 6.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.