30 October 2026, 01:30 UTC

Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellin
Referee: J. Ortiz
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Atletico Nacional 2-0 Santa Fe.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Atletico Nacional, 27% draw, 21% Santa Fe — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Atletico Nacional at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
K. D. Toscano Bassa
22'
V. Moreno
⚽E. Cabreraassist: A. Sarmiento
24'
⚽E. Olivera (OG)
28'
A. Roman
38'
58'
🔁M. Puertaout: J. Obrian
58'
🔁K. D. Toscano Bassaout: D. Torres
58'
🔁A. Zapataout: F. Fagundez
🔁J. Rodriguezout: N. Rodriguez
63'
🔁A. Sarmientoout: E. Benitez
63'
68'
🔁M. Loveraout: O. Fernandez
69'
J. Obrian
F. Marin
71'
🔁E. Cabreraout: J. Zapata
74'
🔁S. Velasquezout: M. Casco
74'
🔁J. Rengifoout: R. Escorcia
80'
82'
🔁J. Torresout: E. Murillo
83'
F. Fagundez
E. Benitez
84'

Match stats — Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe

64%Possession36%
6Shots6
2On target1
1Corners3
0.53xG0.26

Goals against chances

Atletico Nacional2 from 0.53 xGmore than the chances were worth
Santa Fe0 from 0.26 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atletico Nacional 4-4-2
  • 34Franco ArmaniG
  • 6Andrés RománD
  • 15Andres ReyesD
  • 16William TesilloD
  • 33Samuel VelásquezD
  • 22Elías CabreraM
  • 21Jorman CampuzanoM
  • 26Felipe MarinM
  • 29Andrés SarmientoM
  • 23James RodríguezF
  • 19Juan Manuel RengifoF
Substitutes
  • 13Nicolás RodríguezF
  • 32Emanuel BenitezF
  • 20Milton CascoD
  • 80Juan ZapataM
  • 36Jose Rafael EscorciaF
  • 25Luis MarquinezG
  • 31Xavi RiosM
  • 4César HaydarD
  • 28Simon RojasM
Santa Fe 4-4-2
  • 12Weimar AsprillaG
  • 13Helibelton PalaciosD
  • 18Emanuel OliveraD
  • 3Victor MorenoD
  • 4Mateo PuertaD
  • 14Luis Angel PalaciosM
  • 6Kilian ToscanoM
  • 7Jhojan TorresM
  • 10Alexis ZapataM
  • 11Hugo RodallegaF
  • 17Maximiliano LoveraF
Substitutes
  • 16Daniel TorresM
  • 9Franco FagúndezF
  • 77Jader ObrianF
  • 8Omar FernándezF
  • 21Ewil Murillo RenteriaM
  • 31Juan EspitiaG
  • 43Jean CaicedoD
  • 15Ivan ScarpetaD
  • 39Cristhian PortocarreroM

Form going into Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe

Atletico Nacional

Primera A

  • W2-1Independiente Medellin25 October 2026

Santa Fe

Primera A

  • W2-1Bucaramanga27 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Atletico Nacional1912433818+2040
5Santa Fe1910453018+1234

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe

  • 26 February 2026Santa Fe 1–2 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
  • 26 July 2025Atletico Nacional 1–1 Santa FePrimera A
  • 13 June 2025Santa Fe 1–2 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
  • 8 June 2025Atletico Nacional 1–2 Santa FePrimera A
  • 13 February 2025Santa Fe 2–2 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
  • 9 December 2024Santa Fe 0–3 Atletico NacionalPrimera A

Leading scorers: Atletico Nacional and Santa Fe

Atletico Nacional

GoalsAssists

  • A. Morelos166
  • A. Sarmiento117
  • E. Cardona104

Santa Fe

GoalsAssists

  • H. Rodallega173
  • F. Fagúndez105
  • N. Bustos105

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Atletico Nacional beat Santa Fe 2–0. The model had made a win for Atletico Nacional its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: E. Cabrera 24' for Atletico Nacional, E. Olivera (own goal) 28' for Atletico Nacional. On expected goals it finished 0.53–0.26.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atletico Nacional a 64.9% chance to finish top of the Clausura: 78.4% after a win, 54.0% after a draw, 38.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 78.4%, 13.5 points higher than before the match.

For Santa Fe the question was the chance to finish top of the Clausura, 2.6% going in: 9.8% after a win, 1.1% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 0.0%, 2.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Atletico Nacional v Santa Fe has moved

First published on 16 Oct at 50% / 27% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 52% / 27% / 21%: the biggest move is Atletico Nacional's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Atletico Nacional win52%▲ +2
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Santa Fe win21%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.