Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Internacional de Bogota 3-1 Independiente Medellin.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Internacional de Bogota, 28% draw, 35% Independiente Medellin — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Internacional de Bogota at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Wuilker FaríñezG
- 20Joan CastroD
- 2Carlos VivasD
- 26Agustín IrazoqueD
- 25Ronaldo JulioM
- 24Ruben ManjarresM
- 5Larry VásquezM
- 13Miguel PerniaM
- 23Johan CaballeroF
- 7Fabricio SanguinettiF
- 11Cristián DájomeF
- 6Miguel AmayaD
- 10Facundo BonéF
- 9Diego DuarteF
- 12Juan CarrascoG
- 22Sebastián GiradoF
- 32Jhon PalomequeM
- 14Mateo SantamariaM
- 18Emanuel ArboledaF
- 27Emilio GutiérrezF
- 1Salvador IchazoG
- 26Esneyder MenaD
- 4Kevin MantillaD
- 19Alfonso SimarraD
- 18Frank FabraD
- 11Yony GonzálezM
- 14Baldomero PerlazaM
- 6Didier MorenoM
- 20John Edwin MontañoM
- 21Agustín MarteganiF
- 9Jeison MedinaF
- 3Anderson Yair MurilloF
- 10Daniel CatañoM
- 32Carlos LucumiF
- 25Eder ChauxG
- 39Luis EscorciaD
- 5Joaquin VarelaD
- 24Nivaldo ErazoM
- 34Keiner KlingerM
- 31Diego MorenoM
Form going into Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin
Internacional de Bogota
Primera A
- L0-1away to Alianza Valledupar25 October 2026
- W2-1Fortaleza FC20 October 2026
Independiente Medellin
Primera A
- L1-2away to Atletico Nacional25 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 23 |
| 6 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 25 | +4 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin
- 7 February 2026Independiente Medellin 1–2 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
- 23 August 2025Independiente Medellin 3–1 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
- 9 March 2025Internacional de Bogota 0–0 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
- 6 October 2024Independiente Medellin 0–0 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
- 23 March 2024Internacional de Bogota 1–2 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
- 15 July 2023Independiente Medellin 2–2 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
Leading scorers: Internacional de Bogota and Independiente Medellin
Internacional de Bogota
GoalsAssists
- F. Sanguinetti107
Independiente Medellin
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 29 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Internacional de Bogota beat Independiente Medellin 3–1. The model had made a win for Internacional de Bogota its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: J. Caballero 24' for Internacional de Bogota, J. Medina 67' for Independiente Medellin, F. Sanguinetti (penalty) 73' for Internacional de Bogota, D. Duarte 90+2' for Internacional de Bogota. Sent off: R. Julio (Internacional de Bogota) 49'. On expected goals it finished 2.30–1.08.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Internacional de Bogota a 6.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 0.0% after a win, 4.2% after a draw, 12.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 0.0%, 6 points lower than before the match.
For Independiente Medellin the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 80.7% going in: 94.9% after a win, 79.7% after a draw, 68.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 68.9%, 11.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Internacional de Bogota v Independiente Medellin has moved
First published on 15 Oct at 35% / 28% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 37% / 28% / 35%: the biggest move is Internacional de Bogota's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Internacional de Bogota win37%▲ +2
- Draw28%=
- Independiente Medellin win35%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.