29 October 2026, 20:30 UTC

Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Alberto Gallardo, Lima
Referee: Kevin Ortega
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Sporting Cristal 3-2 Alianza Lima.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Sporting Cristal, 28% draw, 36% Alianza Lima — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sporting Cristal at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sporting Cristal4%Draw92%Alianza Lima4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Luis Ibericoassist: Rafael Lutiger
5'
24'
⚽Jairo Vélezassist: Erick Castillo
28'
Cristian Carbajal
Agustín Álvarez
37'
42'
⚽Erick Castilloassist: Federico Girotti
⚽Hernán Barcosassist: Cristiano
45+1'
45'
🔁Cristian Carbajalout: J García
45'
🔁Erick Castilloout: Kevin Quevedo
45'
🔁Jairo Vélezout: Jesús Castillo
Luis Iberico
53'
54'
Jesús Castillo
62'
Alan Martín Cantero
67'
Luis Advíncula
🔁Agustín Álvarezout: Martín Távara
68'
🔁Luis Ibericoout: Gabriel
68'
🔁Hernán Barcosout: Michael Hoyos
74'
75'
🔁Fernando Gaiborout: Alan Martín Cantero
🔁Leandro Sosaout: Juan Gonzalez
83'
🔁Maxloren Castroout: Juan Manuel Cuesta
83'
86'
🔁Jesús Castilloout: Alessandro Burlamaqui
⚽Santiago González
90+2'
Yoshimar Yotún
90+6'

Match stats — Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima

61%Possession39%
19Shots16
7On target6
4Corners5
2.38xG1.98

Goals against chances

Sporting Cristal3 from 2.38 xGmore than the chances were worth
Alianza Lima2 from 1.98 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sporting Cristal 4-2-3-1
  • 1D. EnríquezG
  • 8L. SosaD
  • 20M. AraujoD
  • 5R. LutigerD
  • 90Cris SilvaD
  • 6A. ÁlvarezM
  • 19Y. YotúnM
  • 7S. GonzálezM
  • 16L. IbericoM
  • 23M. CastroM
  • 29H. BarcosF
Substitutes
  • 96L. AbramD
  • 33C. BautistaG
  • 21C. CabellosM
  • 77J. CuestaF
  • 18J. GonzálezD
  • 22M. HoyosM
  • 27GabrielM
  • 25G. TávaraM
  • 11I. ÁvilaF
Coach: R. Mosquera
Alianza Lima 4-1-4-1
  • 1A. DuarteG
  • 17L. AdvínculaD
  • 6R. GarcésD
  • 2N. DíazD
  • 31C. CarbajalD
  • 7F. GaiborM
  • 13M. HuamánM
  • 99F. GirottiM
  • 25G. GentileM
  • 20J. VélezM
  • 8E. CastilloF
Substitutes
  • 9L. RamosF
  • 27K. QuevedoF
  • 32J. GarcíaD
  • 4G. ChávezD
  • 15J. CastilloM
  • 11A. CanteroF
  • 18A. BurlamaquiM
  • 29J. ArchimbaudM
  • 12Á. de la CruzG
Coach: P. Guede

Form going into Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima

Sporting Cristal

Primera División

  • L1-3away to Cusco24 October 2026
  • W4-2Comerciantes Unidos18 October 2026

Alianza Lima

Primera División

  • W1-0away to UCV Moquegua25 October 2026
  • W3-1Atletico Grau18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Sporting Cristal33156126348+1551
1Alianza Lima3320945424+3069

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima

  • 10 May 2026Alianza Lima 1–1 Sporting CristalPrimera División
  • 7 December 2025Alianza Lima 3–3 Sporting CristalPrimera División
  • 3 December 2025Sporting Cristal 1–1 Alianza LimaPrimera División
  • 6 August 2025Alianza Lima 0–0 Sporting CristalPrimera División
  • 2 March 2025Sporting Cristal 1–2 Alianza LimaPrimera División
  • 18 August 2024Sporting Cristal 0–0 Alianza LimaPrimera División

Leading scorers: Sporting Cristal and Alianza Lima

Sporting Cristal

GoalsAssists

  • H. Barcos134
  • L. Iberico110

Alianza Lima

GoalsAssists

  • E. Castillo216

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sporting Cristal beat Alianza Lima 3–2. The goals: Luis Iberico 5' for Sporting Cristal, Jairo Vélez 24' for Alianza Lima, Erick Castillo 42' for Alianza Lima, Hernán Barcos 45+1' for Sporting Cristal, Santiago González 90+2' for Sporting Cristal. On expected goals it finished 2.38–1.98.

How the call on Sporting Cristal v Alianza Lima has moved

First published on 14 Oct at 38% / 28% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 36% / 28% / 36%: the biggest move is Sporting Cristal's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Sporting Cristal win36%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Alianza Lima win36%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.