30 October 2026, 21:00 UTC

Deportivo Pereira vs Jaguares Primera A prediction & result

Santiago de las Atalayas, Yopal
Referee: Diego Alejandro Ruiz Casas, Colombia
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Deportivo Pereira 1-0 Jaguares.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Deportivo Pereira, 29% draw, 29% Jaguares — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Deportivo Pereira at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Deportivo Pereira97%Draw3%Jaguares0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
Juan Franco
•Anderson Plata
12'
Jhon Largacha
31'
46'
🔁Juan Francoout: Juan Pérez
59'
🔁Wilfrido De la Rosaout: Darwin Lopez
64'
🔁Johar Mejíaout: Faber Andrés Gil
🔁Marco Pérezout: Manuel Alejandro Diaz Hernandez
66'
🔁Jhon Largachaout: Yuber Quiñones
66'
⚽Anderson Plataassist: Sebastián Urrea
71'
🔁Anderson Plataout: Eber Moreno
72'
🔁Ederson Morenoout: Jorge Bermúdez
72'
79'
🔁Jose Yanezout: Royscer Colpa
79'
🔁Luis Jiménezout: Duvan Rodríguez
🔁Miguel Palaciosout: Luis Moreno
85'
90+2'
Jonathan Lovera

Match stats — Deportivo Pereira vs Jaguares

43%Possession57%
16Shots18
3On target5
7Corners12
1.11xG0.77

Goals against chances

Deportivo Pereira1 from 1.11 xGabout what the chances were worth
Jaguares0 from 0.77 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Deportivo Pereira
  • 1Yimy GómezG
  • 20Jordy MonroyD
  • 2Sebastián UrreaD
  • 15Santiago AguilarD
  • 25Fabio DelgadoD
  • 7Anderson PlataM
  • 14Ederson MorenoM
  • 21Walmer PachecoM
  • 24Miguel PalaciosM
  • 11Jhon LargachaF
  • 18Marco PérezF
Substitutes
  • 13Yuber QuiñonesF
  • 29Manuel Alejandro Diaz HernandezF
  • 16Eber MorenoD
  • 5Jorge BermúdezM
  • 37Luis MorenoM
  • 12Juan BetancourthG
  • 34Santiago ÁlzateF
  • 23Tobias BovoneD
  • 6Danilo OrtizD
Coach: Alexis Marquez
Jaguares
  • 12Franklin MosqueraG
  • 18Luis JiménezD
  • 6Jonathan LoveraD
  • 3Jerson MalagónD
  • 4Juan FrancoD
  • 32Jose YanezM
  • 21Rafael BustamanteM
  • 7Wilfrido De la RosaM
  • 10Cristian AlvarezM
  • 9Johar MejíaM
  • 11Andrés RenteríaF
Substitutes
  • 23Juan PérezD
  • 17Darwin LopezF
  • 20Faber Andrés GilF
  • 5Royscer ColpaM
  • 8Duvan RodríguezF
  • 1Diego MartínezG
  • 29Carlos HenaoD
  • 24Santiago CubidesF
Coach: Julio Mendez

Form going into Deportivo Pereira vs Jaguares

Deportivo Pereira

Primera A

  • D1-1away to Once Caldas25 October 2026

Jaguares

Primera A

  • W1-0Llaneros26 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Deportivo Pereira193881628-1217
19Jaguares1934121737-2013

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Deportivo Pereira vs Jaguares

  • 26 May 2026Deportivo Pereira 1–0 JaguaresCopa Colombia
  • 9 February 2026Jaguares 1–0 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
  • 1 November 2024Jaguares 1–2 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
  • 14 April 2024Deportivo Pereira 0–0 JaguaresPrimera A
  • 19 August 2023Deportivo Pereira 3–0 JaguaresPrimera A
  • 26 February 2023Jaguares 2–0 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A

Leading scorers: Deportivo Pereira and Jaguares

Deportivo Pereira

No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Jaguares

GoalsAssists

  • A. Rentería123

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Deportivo Pereira beat Jaguares 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Deportivo Pereira at 42%. The goal: Anderson Plata 71' for Deportivo Pereira. On expected goals it finished 1.11–0.77.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Deportivo Pereira a 39.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 14.4% after a win, 48.7% after a draw, 71.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.4%, 25.1 points lower than before the match.

For Jaguares the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 55.8% going in: 25.4% after a win, 55.3% after a draw, 75.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 75.1%, 19.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Deportivo Pereira v Jaguares has moved

First published on 16 Oct at 39% / 29% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 42% / 29% / 29%: the biggest move is Deportivo Pereira's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Deportivo Pereira win42%▲ +3
  2. Draw29%=
  3. Jaguares win29%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.