28 October 2026, 23:00 UTC

Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Palogrande, Manizales
Referee: Carlos Alberto Diaz Vargas, Colombia
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Once Caldas 1-0 Alianza Valledupar.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% Once Caldas, 26% draw, 18% Alianza Valledupar — fair odds of 1.79, 3.85 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Once Caldas at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Once Caldas98%Draw2%Alianza Valledupar0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

46'
🔁Y. Rosalesout: I. Alba
⚽M. Barrios (pen)
52'
62'
🔁F. Pardoout: C. Vergara
M. Barrios
69'
71'
J. Viveros
72'
🔁J. Viverosout: Y. Londono
72'
🔁M. Martinezout: L. Palacios
72'
🔁J. Munozout: D. Quinones
75'
C. Vergara
🔁J. A. Zapata Ramirezout: D. Moreno
76'
🔁M. Barriosout: H. Guzman
76'
D. Londono
77'
81'
I. Alba
🔁J. Nietoout: J. Castano
88'
🔁J. Quinonesout: T. Rojas
88'
🔁P. Gomezout: E. Torres
89'

Match stats — Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar

56%Possession44%
27Shots7
8On target2
8Corners1
1.97xG0.46

Goals against chances

Once Caldas1 from 1.97 xGless than the chances were worth
Alianza Valledupar0 from 0.46 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Once Caldas 4-2-3-1
  • 99Felipe ParraG
  • 22Juan David CuestaD
  • 2Jorge CardonaD
  • 30Daniel LondoñoD
  • 33Juan PatiñoD
  • 5Juan Pablo NietoM
  • 23Andres ColoradoM
  • 7Michael BarriosM
  • 42Jader QuinonesM
  • 9Pipe GómezM
  • 14Jefry ZapataF
Substitutes
  • 17Dayro MorenoF
  • 21Helieyker GuzmanF
  • 16Juan CastañoD
  • 19Tomas GarcíaM
  • 29Edwin TorresF
  • 12Jesús CamargoG
  • 4Efraín NavarroD
  • 18Jeider RiquettD
  • 15Jaime AlvaradoM
Alianza Valledupar 3-4-3
  • 40Eduar BeltránG
  • 5Pedro FrancoD
  • 3Kevin MorenoD
  • 32Juan ViverosD
  • 60Yilson RosalesM
  • 7Jair CastilloM
  • 55Wiston FernándezM
  • 33Jhildrey LassoM
  • 17Felipe PardoF
  • 77Misael MartínezF
  • 8Jesús MuñozF
Substitutes
  • 23Israel AlbaD
  • 18Cristian Andres Vergara RivasF
  • 27Yeiner LondoñoM
  • 10Déinner QuiñonesF
  • 88Leyner PalaciosM
  • 13Antonio SimancasG
  • 6Ever MezaM

Form going into Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar

Once Caldas

Primera A

  • D1-1Deportivo Pereira25 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Millonarios21 October 2026

Alianza Valledupar

Primera A

  • W1-0Internacional de Bogota25 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Once Caldas197752319+428
16Alianza Valledupar1953111833-1518

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar

  • 10 September 2026Once Caldas 1–0 Alianza ValleduparCopa Colombia
  • 8 February 2026Alianza Valledupar 1–1 Once CaldasPrimera A
  • 15 August 2025Alianza Valledupar 0–0 Once CaldasPrimera A
  • 2 March 2025Once Caldas 1–2 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
  • 6 October 2024Alianza Valledupar 1–0 Once CaldasPrimera A
  • 25 March 2024Once Caldas 1–0 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A

Leading scorers: Once Caldas and Alianza Valledupar

Once Caldas

GoalsAssists

  • D. Moreno171
  • J. Zapata133

Alianza Valledupar

No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Once Caldas beat Alianza Valledupar 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Once Caldas at 56%. The goal: M. Barrios (penalty) 52' for Once Caldas. On expected goals it finished 1.97–0.46.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Once Caldas a 41.2% chance to finish in the top eight: 53.6% after a win, 22.4% after a draw, 10.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.6%, 12.4 points higher than before the match.

For Alianza Valledupar the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 2.7% going in: 11.1% after a win, 1.5% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 2.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.