Fiorentina vs Atalanta Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Fiorentina 2-2 Atalanta.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Fiorentina, 27% draw, 42% Atalanta — fair odds of 3.23, 3.70 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Atalanta at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fiorentina vs Atalanta
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 43David de GeaG
- 20Álex JiménezD
- 3R. DrăgușinD
- 33VieryD
- 17João MárioD
- 27C. NdourM
- 44N. FagioliM
- 4M. BrescianiniM
- 30Franco MastantuonoF
- 32Mateo PellegrinoF
- 25A. NjieF
- 53O. ChristensenG
- 2DodôD
- 29W. GnontoF
- 23BetoF
- 21ValdeD
- 73Antonio PirròM
- 28PoteM
- 72B. MazzeoF
- 19L. LezzeriniG
- 29M. CarnesecchiG
- 77D. ZappacostaD
- 31T. KristensenD
- 40R. ObriÄD
- 47L. BernasconiD
- 70G. GaetanoM
- 13ÉdersonM
- 99E. ElmasM
- 17C. De KetelaereM
- 59N. ZalewskiM
- 90N. KrstovićF
- 11J. RoweF
- 7K. SulemanaF
- 57M. SportielloG
- 51M. SonzogniG
- 42G. ScalviniD
- 10L. SamardžićM
- 53M. PlaiaD
- 8Mario PasalicM
- 41J. IdeleM
Form going into Fiorentina vs Atalanta
Fiorentina
Serie A
- L1-2away to Inter25 October 2026
- L1-3Como18 October 2026
Atalanta
Serie A
- D4-4Frosinone25 October 2026
- L2-3away to AC Milan18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Fiorentina | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 9 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atalanta vs Fiorentina
Atalanta and Fiorentina have met 7 times in the records we hold, Atalanta has won 3 of them to Fiorentina's 2, with 2 drawn.
The record
They drew 2–2 at Fiorentina on 29 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 3 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 10 |
| Fiorentina | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 14 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 24 goals, an average of 3.43 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 29 Oct 2026
Serie AFiorentina 2–2 Atalanta - 22 May 2026
Serie AFiorentina 1–1 Atalanta - 30 Nov 2025
Serie AAtalanta 2–0 Fiorentina - 30 Mar 2025
Serie AFiorentina 1–0 Atalanta - 15 Sep 2024
Serie AAtalanta 3–2 Fiorentina - 2 Jun 2024
Serie AAtalanta 2–3 Fiorentina - 24 Apr 2024
Coppa ItaliaAtalanta 4–1 Fiorentina
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, the two attacks rate almost level, and Atalanta concede 11% fewer than Fiorentina. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 1.16 | 0.93 |
| Fiorentina | 1.17 | 1.05 |
Leading scorers: Fiorentina and Atalanta
Fiorentina
GoalsAssists
- Mateo Pellegrino40
- Franco Mastantuono40
Atalanta
GoalsAssists
- N. Krstović72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Fiorentina and Atalanta drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Atalanta at 42% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Charles De Ketelaere 41' for Atalanta, Alieu Njie 53' for Fiorentina, João Mário 61' for Fiorentina, Nicola Zalewski 74' for Atalanta. On expected goals it finished 1.56–1.02.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fiorentina a 12.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 8.6% after a win, 10.8% after a draw, 14.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 10.8%, 1.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Fiorentina v Atalanta has moved
First published on 15 Oct at 29% / 28% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 31% / 27% / 42%: the biggest move is Fiorentina's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Fiorentina win31%▲ +2
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Atalanta win42%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.