Arezzo vs Sudtirol Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Arezzo 1-4 Sudtirol.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Arezzo, 29% draw, 31% Sudtirol — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Arezzo at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Arezzo vs Sudtirol
Line-ups
- 14A. NunzianteG
- 4M. CoppolaroD
- 13M. GilliD
- 5J. IllanesD
- 37S. RighettiD
- 16Mattia SalaM
- 23M. VivianiM
- 17A. IoniţăM
- 10E. PattarelloF
- 71P. CianciF
- 99M. OlivieriF
- 32A. CagnanoD
- 9A. CerriF
- 24L. ChiericoM
- 7Giuseppe Kevin LeoneM
- 33D. ManciniD
- 11L. MancusoF
- 47Aleandro ManesM
- 8S. MawuliM
- 2M. MenaD
- 22A. PlizzariG
- 4R. StivanelloD
- 55A. GiorginiD
- 27G. StabileD
- 79S. MolinaM
- 10Fabio RispoliM
- 5S. TronchinM
- 20B. BjarkasonM
- 11Vasco LopesM
- 17L. AnghelèM
- 90A. OkoroF
- 1Lukas PlonerG
- 46D. BrikM
- 9R. BurneteF
- 23F. DaviD
- 24S. DavìD
- 25K. MixturF
- 19M. PelliniD
- 80Elias SchrootM
- 21F. TaitM
Form going into Arezzo vs Sudtirol
Arezzo
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Empoli11 September 2026
- L0-5away to Hellas Verona6 September 2026
- L2-3Palermo30 August 2026
- W2-1away to Avellino22 August 2026
Sudtirol
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Modena12 September 2026
- W2-0Catanzaro5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Benevento30 August 2026
- W1-0Virtus Entella22 August 2026
What these results say
- Arezzo scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Arezzo conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Arezzo had three goals or more.
- Sudtirol went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Sudtirol scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Sudtirol had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Arezzo | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 11 |
| 12 | Sudtirol | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arezzo vs Sudtirol
- 28 March 2021Sudtirol 1–0 ArezzoSerie C - Girone B
- 6 December 2020Arezzo 0–4 SudtirolSerie C - Girone B
The result against the call
Sudtirol won 4–1 at Arezzo. The model had leaned towards a win for Arezzo at 40% and given a win for Sudtirol 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Fabio Rispoli 45+1' for Sudtirol, Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes 54' for Sudtirol, Kenny Meddy Mixtur 68' for Sudtirol, Andrea Giorgini 79' for Sudtirol, Leonardo Mancuso 81' for Arezzo.