20 September 2026, 15:15 UTC

Mantova vs Pisa Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Mantova 2-2 Pisa.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Mantova, 29% draw, 38% Pisa — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Pisa at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Mantova0%Draw3%Pisa97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Ettore Gliozziassist: Lorenzo Ignacchiti
8'
38'
⚽Filippo Pittarelloassist: Stefano Moreo
43'
Antonio Caracciolo
Alessio Castellini
53'
Jonathan Silva Pertinhes
54'
🔁Francesco Ruoccoout: Davide Bragantini
55'
🔁Rares Ilieout: Ismael Cajazzo
55'
57'
⚽Stefano Moreoassist: Simone Zanon
🔁Ettore Gliozziout: Vanja Vlahovic
64'
65'
🔁Giuseppe Leoneout: Isak Vural
70'
🔁Stefano Moreoout: Andrea Petagna
70'
🔁Matteo Tramoniout: Emanuele Rao
Francesco Modesto
71'
🔁Jonathan Silva Pertinhesout: Federico Chinetti
80'
🔁Lorenzo Ignacchitiout: Jean-Pierre Longonda Itamba Mboyo
80'
80'
🔁Andrea Primassoout: Arturo Calabresi
80'
🔁Simone Zanonout: Tomás Esteves
83'
•Emanuele Rao
87'
Alessandro Confente
Ismael Cajazzo
89'
90'
Arturo Calabresi
Stefano Cella
90'
⚽Vanja Vlahovicassist: Davide Bragantini
90+3'

Match stats — Mantova vs Pisa

62%Possession38%
14Shots14
3On target5
5Corners5

Line-ups

Mantova 3-4-2-1
  • 22F. BardiG
  • 5B. TomaševićD
  • 29S. CellaD
  • 27A. CastelliniD
  • 41Jonathan SilvaM
  • 25L. IgnacchitiM
  • 80R. KoudaM
  • 50F. Benaissa-YahiaM
  • 8R. IlieM
  • 19F. RuoccoM
  • 9E. GliozziF
Substitutes
  • 18S. KeitaM
  • 6J. MboyoM
  • 30D. BragantiniF
  • 75E. KošpoD
  • 20F. PaolettiM
  • 7M. SpinaccèF
  • 99V. VlahovićF
  • 10D. WieserM
  • 1L. GemelloG
Coach: F. Modesto
Pisa 3-4-2-1
  • 98A. ConfenteG
  • 13A. PrimassoD
  • 4A. CaraccioloD
  • 5S. CanestrelliD
  • 72S. ZanonM
  • 55G. LeoneM
  • 29O. CorreiaM
  • 3S. AngoriM
  • 32S. MoreoM
  • 10M. TramoniM
  • 8F. PittarelloF
Substitutes
  • 33A. CalabresiD
  • 26F. CoppolaD
  • 44D. DenoonD
  • 11I. FerrahM
  • 22L. LoriaG
  • 14F. LoyolaD
  • 37A. PetagnaF
  • 36G. PiccininiM
  • 17E. RaoF
Coach: P. Bianco

Form going into Mantova vs Pisa

Mantova

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0Sampdoria13 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Cesena6 September 2026
  • W3-1Empoli30 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Carrarese22 August 2026

Pisa

All competitions we cover

  • L1-4Virtus Entella11 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Juve Stabia6 September 2026
  • W2-1Catanzaro30 August 2026
  • L0-1Padova23 August 2026

What these results say

  • Mantova went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Mantova scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Mantova won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Pisa scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Pisa conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Pisa had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Mantova115421511+419
8Pisa114432017+316

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Mantova vs Pisa

  • 16 March 2025Pisa 3–1 MantovaSerie B
  • 7 December 2024Mantova 2–3 PisaSerie B

Leading scorers: Mantova and Pisa

Mantova

GoalsAssists

  • F. Ruocco50

Pisa

GoalsAssists

  • F. Pittarello41
  • M. Tramoni35
  • T. Marras31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Mantova and Pisa drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Pisa at 38% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ettore Gliozzi 8' for Mantova, Filippo Pittarello 38' for Pisa, Stefano Moreo 57' for Pisa, Vanja Vlahovic 90+3' for Mantova. Sent off: Francesco Modesto (Mantova) 71'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.