20 September 2026, 17:30 UTC

Modena vs Empoli Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Modena 2-1 Empoli.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Modena, 30% draw, 30% Empoli — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Modena at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Modena97%Draw3%Empoli0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
Luca Magnino
27'
⚽Gerard Yepes
41'
🔁Steven Shpendiout: Bogdan Popov
Giacomo Olzer
47'
🔁Giacomo Olzerout: Andrea Belotti
55'
⚽Andrea Belottiassist: Daniel Tonoli
61'
🔁Gastón Brugmanout: Simone Santoro
65'
Alessandro Bianco
66'
⚽Giuseppe Ambrosinoassist: Alessandro Bianco
70'
77'
🔁Edoardo Biondiniout: Filippo Di Stefano
82'
Cristian Cauz
🔁Giuseppe Ambrosinoout: Wisdom Acquah
83'
🔁Paulo Azziout: Francesco Folino
83'
🔁Giuseppe Casoout: Stenio·Zanetti Toledo
83'
89'
🔁Gerard Yepesout: Luca Belardinelli
89'
🔁Luca Magninoout: Lapo Deli

Match stats — Modena vs Empoli

60%Possession40%
22Shots9
8On target4
3Corners2

Line-ups

Modena 3-5-2
  • 1L. ChichizolaG
  • 77D. TonoliD
  • 6S. NadorD
  • 20B. NielingD
  • 27Paulo AzziM
  • 42A. BiancoM
  • 16G. BrugmanM
  • 10G. CasoM
  • 7F. ZampanoM
  • 72G. OlzerF
  • 70G. AmbrosinoF
Substitutes
  • 8S. SantoroM
  • 9D. MontevagoF
  • 26A. ImputatoF
  • 23F. FolinoD
  • 22L. ConsiglioG
  • 17K. BozhanajM
  • 32W. AcquahM
  • 33StênioF
  • 34Diego RoncoD
Coach: D. Galloppa
Empoli 3-5-2
  • 12J. SeghettiG
  • 8L. MagninoD
  • 6S. RomagnoliD
  • 33C. CauzD
  • 91N. CorradoM
  • 98K. ZedadkaM
  • 21Gerard YepesM
  • 39E. BiondiniM
  • 15J. CeesayM
  • 10E. SaporitiF
  • 11S. ShpendiF
Substitutes
  • 57L. BelardinelliM
  • 36D. BembnistaD
  • 40R. BerizziD
  • 5D. Degli InnocentiM
  • 44L. DeliM
  • 20F. DistefanoF
  • 13E. FilippisG
  • 38M. HuqiM
  • 28G. IndragoliD
Coach: G. Pagliuca

Form going into Modena vs Empoli

Modena

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Sudtirol12 September 2026
  • L0-1Avellino6 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Cremonese28 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Benevento22 August 2026

Empoli

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Arezzo11 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Carrarese5 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Mantova30 August 2026
  • W1-0Cremonese22 August 2026

What these results say

  • Modena scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Modena conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Empoli scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Empoli had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Modena117222010+1023
19Empoli112361219-79

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Modena vs Empoli

  • 31 January 2026Empoli 0–0 ModenaSerie B
  • 24 October 2025Modena 2–1 EmpoliSerie B

Leading scorers: Modena and Empoli

Modena

GoalsAssists

  • A. Belotti70
  • G. Ambrosino33
  • G. Caso32

Empoli

GoalsAssists

  • E. Saporiti40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Modena beat Empoli 2–1. The model had made a win for Modena its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Gerard Yepes 27' for Empoli, Andrea Belotti 61' for Modena, Giuseppe Ambrosino 70' for Modena.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.