Arouca vs Santa Clara Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Arouca 1-2 Santa Clara.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Arouca, 31% draw, 34% Santa Clara — fair odds of 2.86, 3.23 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Arouca at 35%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Arouca vs Santa Clara
Line-ups
- 12I. de ArruabarrenaG
- 28Tiago EsgaioD
- 15Javi SánchezD
- 3José FontánD
- 18O. LebedenkoD
- 6E. van EeM
- 8T. FukuiM
- 19A. TrezzaM
- 10Pablo GozálbezM
- 7N. DjouahraM
- 17BarberoF
- 37Mario ClimentD
- 21Mateo FloresM
- 24B. MansillaF
- 9F. MayuluF
- 4Diogo MonteiroD
- 23D. NandínF
- 77S. ParkF
- 89Pedro SantosM
- 5B. PopovićD
- 1Lucas FrançaG
- 42Lucas SoaresD
- 4Pedro PachecoD
- 21Emanuel FernandesD
- 5Guilherme RomãoD
- 8José Luís Rocha TavaresM
- 6Pedro FerreiraM
- 20Tiago RibeiroM
- 70Vinícius LopesF
- 9Gonçalo PaciênciaF
- 10Brenner Lucas Gonçalves SantosF
- 22VitinhoM
- 17João VasconcelosM
- 99SorrisoF
- 3Henrique SilvaD
- 12NenecaG
- 73Léo JacóF
- 7Luis Fernando Santos OliveiraF
- 41Daniel BorgesM
- 11Welinton TorrãoF
Form going into Arouca vs Santa Clara
Arouca
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Estoril7 September 2026
- W2-1Maritimo29 August 2026
- L0-2away to FC Porto23 August 2026
- W4-0Moreirense16 August 2026
- W1-0away to Guimaraes8 August 2026
Santa Clara
All competitions we cover
- W4-0Rio Ave6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Alverca29 August 2026
- W1-0Famalicao23 August 2026
- W1-0away to Academico Viseu15 August 2026
- D2-2Nacional10 August 2026
What these results say
- Santa Clara went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Santa Clara scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arouca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 20 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arouca vs Santa Clara
- 25 July 2026Santa Clara 3–0 AroucaFriendlies Clubs
- 2 May 2026Arouca 2–2 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 21 December 2025Santa Clara 0–0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 26 April 2025Santa Clara 2–0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 15 December 2024Arouca 1–0 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Arouca and Santa Clara
Arouca
GoalsAssists
- Barbero50
Santa Clara
GoalsAssists
- Gonçalo Paciência51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Santa Clara won 2–1 at Arouca. The model had leaned towards a win for Arouca at 35% and given a win for Santa Clara 34%. The goals: Gonçalo Paciência 22' for Santa Clara, José Tavares 36' for Santa Clara, Iván Barbero 46' for Arouca. Sent off: Luiz Fernando Salles De Castro (Santa Clara) 85'.
How the call on Arouca v Santa Clara has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 38% / 29% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 35% / 31% / 34%: the biggest move is Arouca's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Arouca win35%▼ −3
- Draw31%▲ +2
- Santa Clara win34%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.