14 September 2026, 19:15 UTC

Moreirense vs Maritimo Primeira Liga prediction & result

Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Conegos
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Moreirense 3-1 Maritimo.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Moreirense, 31% draw, 34% Maritimo — fair odds of 2.86, 3.23 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Moreirense at 35%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Moreirense99%Draw1%Maritimo0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
Rodri Andrade
Kiko Bondoso
11'
⚽Manuel Mendonçaassist: Tiago Andrade
17'
⚽Leonardo Vonićassist: Kiko Bondoso
28'
45'
🔁Rodri Andradeout: Maxime Dominguez
45'
🔁Bryan Limbombeout: Israel Isaac Ayuma
59'
Maxime Dominguez
🔁Leonardo Vonićout: Alexandre Parsemain
61'
🔁Kiko Bondosoout: Landerson Costa Araújo
61'
🔁Nile Johnout: Rodrigo Alonso
69'
71'
🔁Vladan Danilovićout: Samuel Bamba
79'
⚽Romain Correia
🔁Jóbson de Brito Gonzagaout: Kevyn Monteiro
81'
🔁Manuel Mendonçaout: Chipyoka Songa
81'
81'
🔁Raphael Guzzoout: Mons Rogeani Bassouamina
81'
🔁Martín Tejónout: Maurice Boakye
⚽Alexandre Parsemain (pen)
86'
90+3'
Israel Isaac Ayuma

Match stats — Moreirense vs Maritimo

38%Possession62%
11Shots9
5On target2
3Corners5

Line-ups

Moreirense 4-2-3-1
  • 13André FerreiraG
  • 76Dinis PintoD
  • 66Gilberto BatistaD
  • 26MaracásD
  • 27KikoD
  • 23N. JohnM
  • 8M. StjepanovićM
  • 10Kiko BondosoM
  • 7Manuel Ascenção Bebiano MendonçaM
  • 19Tiago AndradeM
  • 79L. VonićF
Substitutes
  • 1AranhaG
  • 25Afonso AssisM
  • 9A. Duville-ParsemainF
  • 4Kevyn MonteiroD
  • 11LandersonF
  • 17Álvaro MartínezD
  • 21Rodri AlonsoM
  • 2Leandro Henrique Sousa SantosD
  • 28Chipyoka SongaF
Coach: Vasco Costa
Maritimo 4-3-3
  • 13Alfonso PastorG
  • 2Igor JuliãoD
  • 4Rafael FernandesD
  • 44Romain CorreiaD
  • 23Paulo HenriqueD
  • 14Raphael GuzzoM
  • 18V. DanilovićM
  • 6Rodrigo AndradeM
  • 35B. LimbombeF
  • 17Adrián ButzkeF
  • 10Martín TejónF
Substitutes
  • 21I. AlaniM
  • 30Fran VieitesG
  • 15Tomás TavaresD
  • 1Gonçalo TabuaçoG
  • 22G. SzalaiD
  • 5Nilton VarelaD
  • 8M. DominguezM
  • 12M. BassouaminaF
  • 27S. BambaF
Coach: M. van der Gaag

Form going into Moreirense vs Maritimo

Moreirense

All competitions we cover

  • L0-4Benfica9 September 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Porto4 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Casa Pia30 August 2026
  • L0-4away to Arouca16 August 2026
  • D2-2SC Braga9 August 2026

Maritimo

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3Benfica5 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Arouca29 August 2026
  • D2-2Academico Viseu22 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Famalicao16 August 2026
  • W1-0Casa Pia8 August 2026

What these results say

  • Moreirense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Moreirense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Moreirense had three goals or more.
  • Maritimo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Maritimo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Maritimo had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Moreirense114251318-514
15Maritimo10226921-128

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Moreirense vs Maritimo

  • 6 March 2022Moreirense 0–1 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
  • 1 October 2021Maritimo 0–0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
  • 7 March 2021Maritimo 0–2 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
  • 25 October 2020Moreirense 2–1 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
  • 8 March 2020Moreirense 2–0 MaritimoPrimeira Liga

The full Moreirense vs Maritimo record →

Leading scorers: Moreirense and Maritimo

Moreirense

GoalsAssists

  • N. John30

Maritimo

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Moreirense beat Maritimo 3–1. The model had made a win for Moreirense its most likely outcome, at 35%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Manuel Mendonça 17' for Moreirense, Leonardo Vonić 28' for Moreirense, Romain Correia 79' for Maritimo, Alexandre Parsemain (penalty) 86' for Moreirense.

How the call on Moreirense v Maritimo has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 33% / 29% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 35% / 31% / 34%: the biggest move is Maritimo's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Moreirense win35%▲ +2
  2. Draw31%▲ +2
  3. Maritimo win34%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.