13 September 2026, 19:30 UTC

Famalicao vs Sporting CP Primeira Liga prediction & result

Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Vila Nova de Famalicao
Full time1 1

Final score: Famalicao 1-1 Sporting CP.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Famalicao, 31% draw, 36% Sporting CP — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sporting CP at 36% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

27'
Flávio Gonçalves
Gil Dias
45+1'
🔁Gil Diasout: Roméo Beney
45'
🔁Georgios Koutsiasout: Umar Abubakar
60'
64'
🔁Luís Guilhermeout: Rodrigo Zalazar
64'
🔁Flávio Gonçalvesout: Fotis Ioannidis
73'
Geny Catamo
75'
🔁Issa Doumbiaout: Silas Andersen
75'
🔁Geny Catamoout: Nestory Irankunda
Marcos Vinicios Lopes Moura
78'
Carlos Augusto Soares da Costa Faria Carvalhal
80'
81'
Luis Suárez (pen)
🔁Marcos Peñaout: Patricio Salas
82'
🔁Marcos Vinicios Lopes Mouraout: Óscar Aranda Subiela
83'
86'
Luis Suárez
Roméo Beney
87'
90'
Nestory Irankunda
Gonçalo Inácio (OG)
90+1'
90+7'
Iván Fresneda

Match stats — Famalicao vs Sporting CP

32%Possession68%
5Shots16
2On target5
4Corners4

Line-ups

Famalicao 4-2-3-1
  • 25L. CarevićG
  • 17Rodrigo PinheiroD
  • 15Víctor RofinoD
  • 4F. van BreemenD
  • 28Pedro FranciscoD
  • 14Mathias De AmorimM
  • 8Marcos PeñaM
  • 23Gil DiasM
  • 21Tamás SzücsM
  • 7SorrisoM
  • 70G. KoutsiasF
Substitutes
  • 10Pedro SantosF
  • 33P. SalasF
  • 3L. RealpeD
  • 19Paulo MoreiraM
  • 5L. MeyerD
  • 24Mathis JangealM
  • 2Gustavo GarciaD
  • 18R. BeneyF
  • 11Óscar ArandaF
Coach: Carlos Carvalhal
Sporting CP 4-2-3-1
  • 1Rui SilvaG
  • 22Iván FresnedaD
  • 6Z. DebastD
  • 25Gonçalo InácioD
  • 20M. AraújoD
  • 5Sergi AltimiraM
  • 77I. DoumbiaM
  • 10Geny CatamoM
  • 58Flávio GonçalvesM
  • 31Luis GuilhermeM
  • 97L. SuárezF
Substitutes
  • 28J. DerryF
  • 17R. ZalazarM
  • 50Rodrigo DiasD
  • 73Eduardo FelicíssimoM
  • 7F. IoannidisF
  • 19N. IrankundaF
  • 30KaiqueG
  • 9Rafael Ferreira NelF
  • 21Pedro LimaM
Coach: Rui Borges

Form going into Famalicao vs Sporting CP

Famalicao

  • D2-2away to Estrela5 September 2026
  • D0-0GIL Vicente30 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Santa Clara23 August 2026
  • L1-2Maritimo16 August 2026

Sporting CP

  • W2-0Nacional5 September 2026
  • W4-0away to Rio Ave28 August 2026
  • W3-1Alverca22 August 2026
  • W3-2Vitória SC14 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Famalicao604257-24
3Sporting CP6420156+914

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Famalicao vs Sporting CP

  • 13 September 2026Famalicao 1–1 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
  • 15 February 2026Sporting CP 1–0 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
  • 13 September 2025Famalicao 1–2 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
  • 15 March 2025Sporting CP 3–1 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
  • 26 October 2024Famalicao 0–3 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
  • 16 April 2024Famalicao 0–1 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga

Leading scorers: Famalicao and Sporting CP

Famalicao

  • G. Koutsias3 goals

Sporting CP

  • L. Suárez5 goals1 assists
  • Flávio Gonçalves3 goals1 assists
  • F. Ioannidis2 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.