23 October 2026, 15:30 UTC

Al-Ittihad vs Al Diriyah Pro League prediction & result

King Abdullah Sports City, Jeddah
Referee: Majed Mohammed Al-Shamrani, Saudi Arabia
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Al-Ittihad 2-0 Al Diriyah.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Al-Ittihad, 28% draw, 26% Al Diriyah — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Ittihad at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al-Ittihad99%Draw1%Al Diriyah0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Saad Al-Mousa
6'
Mukhtar Ali
24'
⚽George Ilenikhena
30'
•George Ilenikhena
30'
35'
Óscar Rodríguez
George Ilenikhena
42'
🔁George Ilenikhenaout: Youssef En-Nesyri
45'
🔁Saad Al-Mousaout: Dion Lopy
45'
57'
Berat Djimsiti
•Danilo Pereira
58'
58'
🔁Lovro Chelfiout: Clayton diandy
58'
🔁Hussain Al-Sabiyaniout: Khalid Al-Asiri
58'
🔁Meshari Fahad Al Nemerout: Darwin Nuñez
58'
🔁Hussain Al Qahtaniout: Abdulelah Al-Malki
58'
Enzo Millot
60'
Meshari Fahad Al Nemer
63'
Abdulelah Al-Malki
⚽Georginio Wijnaldum (pen)
77'
🔁Georginio Wijnaldumout: Marwan Al-Sahafi
78'
81'
🔁Óscar Rodríguezout: Abdulaziz Al Faraj
🔁Ahmed Al-Ghamdiout: Muath Faquihi
82'
🔁Houssem Aouarout: Mohammed Ahmed Fallatah
90'
90+6'
Abdulelah Al-Malki

Match stats — Al-Ittihad vs Al Diriyah

49%Possession51%
20Shots12
7On target1
8Corners7
2.78xG0.95

Goals against chances

Al-Ittihad2 from 2.78 xGless than the chances were worth
Al Diriyah0 from 0.95 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al-Ittihad 4-2-3-1
  • 1P. RajkovićG
  • 13Muhannad Al ShanqitiD
  • 6Saad Al MosaD
  • 2Danilo PereiraD
  • 25F. AbdiD
  • 5R. RiosM
  • 8Mukhtar AliM
  • 23G. WijnaldumM
  • 10H. AouarM
  • 27Ahmed Al GhamdiM
  • 9G. IlenikhenaF
Substitutes
  • 30D. LopyM
  • 22Marwan Al SahafiF
  • 32Ahmed Al JulaydanD
  • 50Mohammed Al AbsiG
  • 11Saleh Al ShehriF
  • 66Mohammed BarnawiD
  • 21Y. En-NesyriF
  • 42Muath FaqeehiD
  • 41Mohammed FallatahM
Coach: Jens Wissing
Al Diriyah 4-2-3-1
  • 97Amin Al BukhariG
  • 12T. WadiD
  • 19B. DjimsitiD
  • 99C. MbembaD
  • 16Hussain Al SibyaniD
  • 52Hussain Al QahtaniM
  • 20E. MillotM
  • 25L. ChelfiM
  • 14Óscar RodríguezM
  • 10A. BoulbinaM
  • 75Meshari Al NemerF
Substitutes
  • 2Abdulaziz Al FarajD
  • 88Abdulelah Al MalkiM
  • 34Mansour Hibatullah Al SibyaniG
  • 17C. DiandyF
  • 21M. HameranD
  • 87Qassem LajamiD
  • 29D. NúñezF
  • 78Khalid Al AsiriD
  • 6Sultan Al FarhanM
Coach: Bruno Lage

Form going into Al-Ittihad vs Al Diriyah

Al-Ittihad

Pro League

  • W4-1away to Al-Ettifaq20 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Al-Hilal10 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Al-Faisaly FC11 September 2026

Al Diriyah

Pro League

  • W1-0Al Riyadh20 October 2026
  • D1-1Al Taawon17 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Al-Nassr9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Saudi Arabia Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Al-Ittihad117312111+1024
8Al Diriyah124351013-315

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Al-Ittihad and Al Diriyah

Al-Ittihad

GoalsAssists

  • Y. En-Nesyri70
  • G. Ilenikhena63
  • S. Bergwijn51

Al Diriyah

No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al-Ittihad beat Al Diriyah 2–0. The model had made a win for Al-Ittihad its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: George Ilenikhena 30' for Al-Ittihad, Georginio Wijnaldum (penalty) 77' for Al-Ittihad. Sent off: Abdulelah Al-Malki (Al Diriyah) 90+6'. On expected goals it finished 2.78–0.95.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al-Ittihad these chances to finish in the top four: 41.6% after a win, 34.4% after a draw, 31.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 41.6%.

Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Al-Ittihad v Al Diriyah has moved

First published on 9 Oct at 39% / 30% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 46% / 28% / 26%: the biggest move is Al-Ittihad's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Al-Ittihad win46%▲ +7
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. Al Diriyah win26%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.