Athletic Club vs Alaves La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Athletic Club 0-0 Alaves.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Athletic Club, 29% draw, 26% Alaves — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Athletic Club at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Athletic Club vs Alaves
Line-ups
- 1Unai SimónG
- 31J. Louis-JeanD
- 4Aitor ParedesD
- 14Aymeric LaporteD
- 17YuriD
- 16Ruíz de GalarretaM
- 18Mikel JauregizarM
- 23Robert NavarroM
- 8Oihan SancetM
- 10Nico WilliamsM
- 9I. WilliamsF
- 25Álvaro DjalóF
- 28Peio CanalesM
- 7Álex BerenguerF
- 12Jesús AresoD
- 24Beñat GerenabarrenaM
- 13Álex PadillaG
- 6Beñat PradosM
- 20Alejandro RegoM
- 15Hugo RincónD
- 1SiveraG
- 14N. TenagliaD
- 17JonnyD
- 16V. KoskiD
- 2N. ValentiniD
- 21A. RebbachD
- 23C. BenavídezM
- 6GuevaraM
- 19Pablo IbáñezM
- 15L. BoyéF
- 9M. DíazF
- 8Antonio BlancoM
- 24Selu DialloM
- 3YusiD
- 29Izei HernándezF
- 11Toni MartínezF
- 12Hugo NovoaF
- 27X. OlaizD
- 7Angel PérezD
- 13A. GiménezG
Form going into Athletic Club vs Alaves
Athletic Club
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Elche12 September 2026
- W3-0Atletico Madrid5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Celta Vigo30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Barcelona27 August 2026
- L1-3Sevilla22 August 2026
Alaves
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Valencia15 September 2026
- L1-2away to Racing Santander12 September 2026
- W5-2Osasuna6 September 2026
- W1-0Villarreal28 August 2026
- D1-1away to Rayo Vallecano20 August 2026
What these results say
- Athletic Club scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Alaves scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Alaves conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Athletic Club | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 12 | Alaves | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Athletic Club vs Alaves
- 2 May 2026Alaves 2–4 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 13 September 2025Athletic Club 0–1 AlavesLa Liga
- 22 July 2025Alaves 1–0 Athletic ClubFriendlies Clubs
- 11 May 2025Athletic Club 1–0 AlavesLa Liga
- 15 December 2024Alaves 1–1 Athletic ClubLa Liga
Leading scorers: Athletic Club and Alaves
Athletic Club
GoalsAssists
- Álex Berenguer44
Alaves
GoalsAssists
- L. Boyé50
- M. Díaz44
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Athletic Club and Alaves drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Athletic Club at 45% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one.
How the call on Athletic Club v Alaves has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 36% / 31% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 45% / 29% / 26%: the biggest move is Athletic Club's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- Athletic Club win45%▲ +9
- Draw29%▼ −2
- Alaves win26%▼ −7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.