Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Celta Vigo 5-0 Racing Santander.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Celta Vigo, 29% draw, 38% Racing Santander — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Racing Santander at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander
Line-ups
- 13I. RaduG
- 15Álvaro NúñezD
- 18Yoel LagoD
- 21S. CáceresD
- 17Javi RuedaM
- 6I. MoribaM
- 8Miguel RománM
- 23Hugo ÁlvarezM
- 16Hugo GonzálezF
- 9Ferran JutglàF
- 19W. SwedbergF
- 1A. BayındırG
- 2C. StarfeltD
- 20Javi RodríguezD
- 7Borja IglesiasF
- 22Javi GalánD
- 14Aleix FebasM
- 4A. FayeD
- 11Pablo DuránF
- 24C. DriouechF
- 13Julen AgirrezabalaG
- 2Álvaro MantillaD
- 5Pablo RamónD
- 24J. BelocianD
- 17Jorge SalinasD
- 8André AlmeidaM
- 15Pablo GarcíaM
- 23Iván MartínM
- 10Iñigo VicenteM
- 19Iker LuqueM
- 21M. ZabiriF
- 14M. GueyeM
- 16Facundo GonzálezD
- 31Laro GómezG
- 20Sergio CanalesM
- 9Juan Carlos AranaF
- 7G. GuliashviliF
- 4Manu HernandoD
- 3Aarón MartínD
- 22Pedro FelipeD
Form going into Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander
Celta Vigo
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Omonia Nicosia16 September 2026
- D1-1Malaga13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Getafe7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Real Sociedad3 September 2026
- L0-2Athletic Club30 August 2026
Racing Santander
All competitions we cover
- L2-7away to Barcelona16 September 2026
- W2-1Alaves12 September 2026
- L2-3away to Rayo Vallecano5 September 2026
- W3-2Elche28 August 2026
- L0-1away to Getafe23 August 2026
What these results say
- Celta Vigo did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Celta Vigo had two goals or fewer.
- Celta Vigo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Racing Santander conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Racing Santander scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Racing Santander had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | Racing Santander | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander
- 5 January 2025Racing Santander 2–3 Celta VigoCopa del Rey
Leading scorers: Celta Vigo and Racing Santander
Celta Vigo
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Racing Santander
GoalsAssists
- M. Zabiri90
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Celta Vigo beat Racing Santander 5–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Racing Santander at 38% and given a win for Celta Vigo 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Hugo González (penalty) 32' for Celta Vigo, Ilaix Moriba 43' for Celta Vigo, Miguel Roman 69' for Celta Vigo, Pablo Durán Fernández 78' for Celta Vigo, Pablo Durán Fernández 90+2' for Celta Vigo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.