Sevilla vs Barcelona La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Sevilla 1-3 Barcelona.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Sevilla, 29% draw, 44% Barcelona — fair odds of 3.70, 3.45 and 2.27.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Barcelona at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sevilla vs Barcelona
Line-ups
- 1O. VlachodimosG
- 2Juan IglesiasD
- 12A. SanganteD
- 5Andrés CastrínD
- 17G. SuazoD
- 8G. KochorashviliM
- 6L. AgouméM
- 30M. SierraM
- 24Y. FofanaM
- 20Félix CorreiaM
- 9R. UreF
- 22José Ángel CarmonaD
- 14Manu BuenoM
- 3Julio Díaz del RomoD
- 21C. EjukeF
- 13Fran GonzálezG
- 7Alfon GonzálezF
- 18Jon GuridiM
- 23MarcãoD
- 34Iker Ortín MuñozD
- 25D. LivakovićG
- 24Eric GarcíaD
- 5Pau Cubarsí ParedesD
- 15A. ChristensenD
- 2João CanceloD
- 7FermínM
- 16RodriM
- 8PedriM
- 10Lamine YamalF
- 11RaphinhaF
- 17A. GordonF
- 14K. AdeyemiF
- 3Alejandro BaldeD
- 22Marc BernalM
- 12X. EspartD
- 9Gabriel JesusF
- 6GaviM
- 23J. KoundéD
- 18Gerard MartínD
- 20Dani OlmoM
Form going into Sevilla vs Barcelona
Sevilla
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Deportivo La Coruna16 September 2026
- W1-0Valencia11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Espanyol6 September 2026
- L1-3Atletico Madrid29 August 2026
- W3-1away to Athletic Club22 August 2026
Barcelona
All competitions we cover
- W7-2Racing Santander16 September 2026
- W4-2away to Levante13 September 2026
- W5-1Feyenoord9 September 2026
- W5-0away to Valencia6 September 2026
- W5-2Rayo Vallecano31 August 2026
What these results say
- Sevilla scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Barcelona won every one of these 5 matches.
- Barcelona scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Barcelona had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sevilla | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 18 |
| 1 | Barcelona | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 48 | 13 | +35 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sevilla vs Barcelona
- 15 March 2026Barcelona 5–2 SevillaLa Liga
- 5 October 2025Sevilla 4–1 BarcelonaLa Liga
- 9 February 2025Sevilla 1–4 BarcelonaLa Liga
- 20 October 2024Barcelona 5–1 SevillaLa Liga
- 26 May 2024Sevilla 1–2 BarcelonaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Sevilla and Barcelona
Sevilla
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Barcelona
GoalsAssists
- Raphinha153
- Lamine Yamal108
- Fermín75
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Barcelona won 3–1 at Sevilla. The model had made a win for Barcelona its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Youssouf Fofana 19' for Sevilla, Raphael Dias Belloli 22' for Barcelona, Raphael Dias Belloli 52' for Barcelona, Raphael Dias Belloli 69' for Barcelona.
How the call on Sevilla v Barcelona has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 28% / 27% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 12 updates, it read 27% / 29% / 44%: the biggest move is the draw, up 2 points.
- Sevilla win27%▼ −1
- Draw29%▲ +2
- Barcelona win44%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.