Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Osasuna 1-1 Rayo Vallecano.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Osasuna, 27% draw, 39% Rayo Vallecano — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Rayo Vallecano at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano
Line-ups
- 13Aitor FernándezG
- 27Íñigo ArguibideD
- 29Asier OsambelaD
- 24CatenaD
- 35U. SantosD
- 15Diego RicoD
- 14Rubén GarcíaM
- 7MoncayolaM
- 8Iker MuñozM
- 11Kike BarjaM
- 17A. BudimirF
- 30Asier BonelF
- 20R. Del CastilloM
- 21Jonathan DubasinF
- 26Mauro EchegoyenM
- 31Rafa FernándezG
- 9Raúl GarcíaF
- 1Sergio HerreraG
- 18Raul MoroF
- 6Lucas TorróM
- 25E. AuderoG
- 2A. RațiuD
- 15Mujaid SadickD
- 24F. LejeuneD
- 17Adrià PedrosaD
- 8Unai LópezM
- 6P. CissM
- 23Óscar ValentínM
- 19Jorge de FrutosF
- 10Sergio CamelloF
- 18Álvaro GarcíaF
- 1Dani CárdenasG
- 20I. BalliuD
- 37Rayane BelidF
- 36G. BouareM
- 4Pedro DíazM
- 22Pelayo FernándezD
- 3M. KumbullaD
- 21Fran PérezF
- 14G. TsitaishviliF
Form going into Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano
Osasuna
All competitions we cover
- L0-4away to Atletico Madrid16 September 2026
- L0-2Espanyol12 September 2026
- L2-5away to Alaves6 September 2026
- W1-0Getafe31 August 2026
- W2-1away to Celta Vigo27 August 2026
Rayo Vallecano
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Espanyol15 September 2026
- L1-4away to Real Madrid12 September 2026
- W3-2Racing Santander5 September 2026
- L2-5away to Barcelona31 August 2026
- D1-1Alaves20 August 2026
What these results say
- Osasuna conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rayo Vallecano scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rayo Vallecano conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Rayo Vallecano.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Osasuna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano
- 24 January 2026Rayo Vallecano 1–3 OsasunaLa Liga
- 14 September 2025Osasuna 2–0 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 19 January 2025Osasuna 1–1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 16 September 2024Rayo Vallecano 3–1 OsasunaLa Liga
- 20 April 2024Rayo Vallecano 2–1 OsasunaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano
Osasuna
GoalsAssists
- A. Budimir80
Rayo Vallecano
GoalsAssists
- Sergio Camello72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Rayo Vallecano at 39% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Ante Budimir 16' for Osasuna, Sergio Camello 50' for Rayo Vallecano.
How the call on Osasuna v Rayo Vallecano has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 46% / 27% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 11 updates, it read 34% / 27% / 39%: the biggest move is Osasuna's chance of winning, down 12 points.
- Osasuna win34%▼ −12
- Draw27%=
- Rayo Vallecano win39%▲ +12
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Osasuna's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Rayo Vallecano's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.