16 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Espanyol vs Levante La Liga prediction & result

RCDE Stadium, Cornella de Llobregat
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Espanyol 3-0 Levante.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Espanyol, 23% draw, 43% Levante — fair odds of 2.94, 4.35 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Levante at 43% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Espanyol99%Draw1%Levante0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽R. Fernandez Jaen
5'
U. Gonzalez
37'
⚽R. Fernandez Jaenassist: J. Hernandez
40'
46'
🔁C. Alvarezout: E. Bardeli
46'
🔁P. Cortesout: K. Etta Eyong
A. Calatrava
63'
64'
🔁I. Romeroout: M. Santos
J. Hernandez
68'
🔁U. Gonzalezout: P. Lozano
72'
🔁A. Calatravaout: R. Bauza
72'
76'
🔁N. Perezout: J. Toljan
76'
🔁V. Garciaout: K. Tunde
⚽T. Dolanassist: R. Bauza
80'
🔁T. Dolanout: Jofre
81'
🔁J. Hernandezout: P. Milla
82'
🔁Expositoout: M. Fernandez Sanchez
86'

Match stats — Espanyol vs Levante

54%Possession46%
16Shots4
6On target0
0Corners1
1.55xG0.28

Goals against chances

Espanyol3 from 1.55 xGmore than the chances were worth
Levante0 from 0.28 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Espanyol 4-2-3-1
  • 13M. DmitrovicG
  • 23O. El HilaliD
  • 5C. RiedelD
  • 14U. NunezD
  • 29R. HinojoD
  • 4U. GonzalezM
  • 8ExpositoM
  • 22A. CalatravaM
  • 28J. HernandezM
  • 24T. DolanM
  • 9R. Fernandez JaenF
Substitutes
  • 1A. FortunoG
  • 31L. SerredG
  • 16V. DrkusicD
  • 3Q. HartmanD
  • 32J. A. LopezD
  • 10P. LozanoM
  • 20Gabriel MoscardoM
  • 26R. BauzaM
  • 11P. MillaM
Coach: Manolo Gonzalez
Levante 4-2-3-1
  • 13M. RyanG
  • 29N. PerezD
  • 4DelaD
  • 2A. MandiD
  • 23M. SanchezD
  • 8J. A. OlasagastiM
  • 20O. ReyM
  • 17V. GarciaM
  • 10C. AlvarezM
  • 27P. CortesM
  • 9I. RomeroF
Substitutes
  • 1P. CunatG
  • 36I. Galdin
  • 22J. ToljanD
  • 14J. CabelloD
  • 38A. CalatravaM
  • 18E. BardeliM
  • 34M. Usedo DomingoM
  • 19K. TundeF
  • 21K. Etta EyongF
Coach: Luis Castro

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Espanyol621397+27
14Levante512279-25

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Espanyol vs Levante

  • 16 August 2026Espanyol 3–0 LevanteLa Liga
  • 27 April 2026Espanyol 0–0 LevanteLa Liga
  • 11 January 2026Levante 1–1 EspanyolLa Liga
  • 4 February 2024Espanyol 2–1 LevanteSegunda División
  • 8 September 2023Levante 1–4 EspanyolSegunda División
  • 12 March 2022Levante 1–1 EspanyolLa Liga

Leading scorers: Espanyol and Levante

Espanyol

  • Roberto Fernández6 goals

Levante

  • Brugui3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.