19 August 2026, 23:30 UTC

DC United vs New England Revolution Major League Soccer prediction & result

Audi Field, Washington
Full time0 – 3

Final score: DC United 0-3 New England Revolution.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% DC United, 23% draw, 38% New England Revolution — fair odds of 2.56, 4.35 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts DC United at 39% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

DC United0%Draw1%New England Revolution99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
B. Raines
23'
⚽A. Yusufassist: P. Miller
A. Dozzell
26'
32'
M. Polster
45'
⚽A. Yusufassist: J. Harrison
🔁S. Nealisout: B. Servania
46'
🔁J. Hopkinsout: N. Ordaz
46'
66'
⚽A. Yusufassist: J. Harrison
🔁L. Munteanuout: H. Kijima
68'
🔁K. Nonoout: N. Markovic
68'
77'
🔁D. Turgemanout: W. Harris
84'
🔁M. Polsterout: C. Baker
84'
🔁J. Harrisonout: M. Zambrano
89'
🔁C. Gilout: J. Siqueira
89'
🔁P. Millerout: G. Yow
🔁A. Dozzellout: J. Stroud
90'

Match stats — DC United vs New England Revolution

40%Possession60%
15Shots18
3On target7
4Corners5
1.56xG2.97

Goals against chances

DC United0 from 1.56 xGless than the chances were worth
New England Revolution3 from 2.97 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

DC United 4-4-2
  • 1Sean JohnsonG
  • 5Silvan HeftiD
  • 3Lucas BartlettD
  • 13Sean NealisD
  • 6Keisuke KurokawaD
  • 2Kimito NonoM
  • 4Matti PeltolaM
  • 21Andre DozzellM
  • 25Jackson HopkinsM
  • 9Tai BariboF
  • 11Louis MunteanuF
Substitutes
  • 23Brandon ServaniaM
  • 22Nathan OrdazF
  • 27Nikola MarkovicD
  • 77Hosei KijimaM
  • 8Jared StroudM
  • 26Alex BonoG
  • 32Oscar AvilezF
Coach: Rene Weiler
New England Revolution 4-3-3
  • 30Matt TurnerG
  • 8Matt PolsterD
  • 22Ethan KohlerD
  • 2Mamadou FofanaD
  • 23William SandsD
  • 10Carles GilM
  • 21Brooklyn RainesM
  • 80Alhassan YusufM
  • 11Jack HarrisonF
  • 99Dor TurgemanF
  • 25Peyton MillerF
Substitutes
  • 27Wilson HarrisF
  • 15Cody BakerD
  • 17Marcos ZambranoF
  • 65Judah SiqueiraF
  • 7Griffin YowF
  • 33Donovan ParisianG
  • 4Tanner BeasonD
  • 14Jackson YueillM
  • 77Diego FagúndezM
Coach: Marko Mitrovic

Form going into DC United vs New England Revolution

DC United

  • D1-1away to CF Montreal15 August 2026
  • D2-2Nashville SC1 August 2026
  • W2-1Toronto FC25 July 2026
  • D1-1away to Houston Dynamo23 July 2026

New England Revolution

  • L1-2away to Toronto FC15 August 2026
  • L0-2Houston Dynamo8 August 2026
  • D2-2away to CF Montreal1 August 2026
  • W4-1Atlanta United FC25 July 2026
  • D0-0Toronto FC22 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: DC United vs New England Revolution

  • 19 August 2026DC United 0–3 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
  • 11 April 2026New England Revolution 1–0 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
  • 9 August 2025New England Revolution 2–0 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
  • 28 May 2025DC United 1–1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
  • 5 October 2024New England Revolution 1–2 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
  • 25 February 2024DC United 3–1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: DC United and New England Revolution

DC United

  • T. Baribo14 goals

New England Revolution

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.