30 August 2026, 17:15 UTC

Atromitos vs PAOK Super League 1 prediction & result

Peristeri Stadium, Athens
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Atromitos 1-2 PAOK.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Atromitos, 28% draw, 36% PAOK — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Atromitos at 36% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Atromitos0%Draw5%PAOK95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽C. Nunezassist: A. Karamanis
19'
Dimitrios Tsakmakis
37'
43'
⚽D. Pelkasassist: T. Ali
🔁D. Tsakmakisout: P. Tsantilas
46'
46'
🔁P. Hatzidiakosout: G. Michailidis
51'
Greg Taylor
59'
🔁G. Taylorout: B. Santamaria
64'
⚽D. Pelkas
66'
🔁T. Aliout: D. Chatsidis
🔁S. Tsiloulisout: E. Hoxha
72'
🔁S. Zuberout: A. Kotsis
73'
🔁S. Pnevmonidisout: G. Tzovaras
73'
81'
🔁A. Zivkovicout: K. Thymianis
81'
🔁C. Ndiayeout: A. Mythou
🔁C. Nunezout: H. Magnusson
85'

Match stats — Atromitos vs PAOK

46%Possession54%
16Shots14
3On target4
2Corners6
1.33xG1.61

Goals against chances

Atromitos1 from 1.33 xGabout what the chances were worth
PAOK2 from 1.61 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atromitos 4-2-3-1
  • 1L. ChoutetsiotisG
  • 44D. TsakmakisD
  • 4D. StavropoulosD
  • 24G. MitoglouD
  • 21J. UronenD
  • 6A. KaramanisM
  • 8S. MoutoussamyM
  • 10S. PnevmonidisM
  • 11C. NunezM
  • 7S. ZuberM
  • 23S. TsiloulisF
Substitutes
  • 88S. DiengG
  • 31V. Athanasiou
  • 32H. MagnussonD
  • 16G. PapadopoulosD
  • 20S. Abartzidis
  • 30A. KotsisM
  • 17E. HoxhaM
  • 19P. Tsantilas
  • 33K. BatosM
Coach: Dusan Kerkez
PAOK 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. PavlenkaG
  • 3J. KennyD
  • 6A. ElustondoD
  • 4P. HatzidiakosD
  • 21A. BabaD
  • 20C. ZafeirisM
  • 32G. TaylorM
  • 14A. ZivkovicM
  • 10D. PelkasM
  • 22T. AliM
  • 27C. NdiayeF
Substitutes
  • 99A. TsiftsisG
  • 41D. MonastirlisG
  • 13D. GiannoulisD
  • 25K. ThymianisD
  • 18JogoD
  • 97D. BataoulasD
  • 5G. MichailidisD
  • 11TaisonF
  • 7B. SantamariaM
Coach: Alessio Lisci

Form going into Atromitos vs PAOK

Atromitos

  • L0-1away to Olympiakos Piraeus22 August 2026

PAOK

  • W4-0Levadiakos23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Atromitos402235-22
2PAOK430194+59

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atromitos vs PAOK

  • 30 August 2026Atromitos 1–2 PAOKSuper League 1
  • 6 January 2026PAOK 1–1 AtromitosCup
  • 14 December 2025Atromitos 2–0 PAOKSuper League 1
  • 31 August 2025PAOK 1–0 AtromitosSuper League 1
  • 22 December 2024PAOK 3–0 AtromitosSuper League 1
  • 1 September 2024Atromitos 1–2 PAOKSuper League 1

Leading scorers: Atromitos and PAOK

Atromitos

No player in Super League 1's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

PAOK

  • D. Pelkas3 goals
  • A. Živković2 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.