Atromitos vs PAOK Super League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Atromitos 1-2 PAOK.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Atromitos, 28% draw, 36% PAOK — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Atromitos at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atromitos vs PAOK
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. ChoutetsiotisG
- 44D. TsakmakisD
- 4D. StavropoulosD
- 24G. MitoglouD
- 21J. UronenD
- 6A. KaramanisM
- 8S. MoutoussamyM
- 10S. PnevmonidisM
- 11C. NunezM
- 7S. ZuberM
- 23S. TsiloulisF
- 88S. DiengG
- 31V. Athanasiou
- 32H. MagnussonD
- 16G. PapadopoulosD
- 20S. Abartzidis
- 30A. KotsisM
- 17E. HoxhaM
- 19P. Tsantilas
- 33K. BatosM
- 1J. PavlenkaG
- 3J. KennyD
- 6A. ElustondoD
- 4P. HatzidiakosD
- 21A. BabaD
- 20C. ZafeirisM
- 32G. TaylorM
- 14A. ZivkovicM
- 10D. PelkasM
- 22T. AliM
- 27C. NdiayeF
- 99A. TsiftsisG
- 41D. MonastirlisG
- 13D. GiannoulisD
- 25K. ThymianisD
- 18JogoD
- 97D. BataoulasD
- 5G. MichailidisD
- 11TaisonF
- 7B. SantamariaM
Form going into Atromitos vs PAOK
Atromitos
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Olympiakos Piraeus22 August 2026
PAOK
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Brann27 August 2026
- W4-0Levadiakos23 August 2026
- D1-1Brann20 August 2026
- L2-3away to Anderlecht13 August 2026
- L0-1Anderlecht6 August 2026
What these results say
- PAOK failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- PAOK scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- PAOK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Atromitos | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 6 |
| 4 | PAOK | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atromitos vs PAOK
- 6 January 2026PAOK 1–1 AtromitosCup
- 14 December 2025Atromitos 2–0 PAOKSuper League 1
- 31 August 2025PAOK 1–0 AtromitosSuper League 1
- 22 December 2024PAOK 3–0 AtromitosSuper League 1
- 1 September 2024Atromitos 1–2 PAOKSuper League 1
Leading scorers: Atromitos and PAOK
Atromitos
No player in Super League 1's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
PAOK
GoalsAssists
- C. Ndiaye40
- A. Živković35
- D. Pelkas30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
PAOK won 2–1 at Atromitos. The goals: C. Nunez 19' for Atromitos, D. Pelkas 43' for PAOK, D. Pelkas 64' for PAOK. On expected goals it finished 1.33–1.61.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.