30 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI Super League 1 prediction & result

Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Thessaloniki
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 OFI.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Aris Thessalonikis, 29% draw, 27% OFI — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Aris Thessalonikis at 44% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Aris Thessalonikis99%Draw1%OFI0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. Garciaassist: U. Racic
3'
12'
Andreas Bouchalakis
Manu García
19'
🔁S. Palaciosout: G. Gianniotas
46'
46'
🔁L. Dickmannout: B. Gonzalez
46'
🔁A. Bouchalakisout: Z. Karachalios
Benjamín Garré
51'
🔁T. Kadewereout: R. Mir
58'
🔁M. Garciaout: C. Kouame
58'
65'
🔁A. Cantalapiedraout: I. Apostolakis
66'
🔁T. Nussout: K. Kodro
⚽C. Kouame
68'
Noah Fadiga
73'
77'
Achilleas Poungouras
79'
🔁T. Fountasout: I. Theodosoulakis
🔁T. Dele-Bashiruout: M. Hongla
80'
Fredrik Jensen
81'
•Omar Richards
84'
⚽Uroš Račić (pen)
88'
Ricardo Velho
90+5'
🔁B. Garreout: J. Petris
90'
90'
⚽K. Kodroassist: N. Athanasiou

Match stats — Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI

42%Possession58%
17Shots10
10On target3
3Corners1
1.75xG1.34

Goals against chances

Aris Thessalonikis2 from 1.75 xGabout what the chances were worth
OFI1 from 1.34 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Aris Thessalonikis 4-2-3-1
  • 33R. VelhoG
  • 27N. FadigaD
  • 4FabianoD
  • 97F. JensenD
  • 3O. RichardsD
  • 20T. Dele-BashiruM
  • 10U. RacicM
  • 7B. GarreM
  • 5M. GarciaM
  • 34S. PalaciosM
  • 9T. KadewereF
Substitutes
  • 1S. DioudisG
  • 21L. MajkicG
  • 44B. SutaloD
  • 2J. PetrisD
  • 88M. KerkezM
  • 18M. HonglaM
  • 22M. VoriazidisM
  • 70G. GianniotasF
  • 17R. MirF
Coach: Michalis Grigoriou
OFI 3-4-2-1
  • 31N. ChristogeorgosG
  • 15A. PoungourasD
  • 43D. NikolaouD
  • 2K. KrizmanicD
  • 24L. DickmannM
  • 14A. AndroutsosM
  • 41A. BouchalakisM
  • 3N. AthanasiouM
  • 11T. FountasF
  • 10A. CantalapiedraF
  • 18T. NussF
Substitutes
  • 13P. KatsikasG
  • 1K. LiloG
  • 17B. GonzalezD
  • 16C. SielisD
  • 90P. KenourgiakisD
  • 8G. KanellopoulosM
  • 6Z. KarachaliosM
  • 21I. ApostolakisM
  • 19K. KodroF
Coach: Christos Kontis

Form going into Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI

Aris Thessalonikis

  • W3-2away to Kalamata22 August 2026

OFI

  • W2-0Volos NFC23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Aris Thessalonikis4202510-56
3OFI430162+49

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI

  • 30 August 2026Aris Thessalonikis 2–1 OFISuper League 1
  • 10 May 2026Aris Thessalonikis 3–1 OFISuper League 1
  • 3 May 2026OFI 0–2 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
  • 22 March 2026Aris Thessalonikis 0–2 OFISuper League 1
  • 4 October 2025OFI 3–0 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
  • 3 May 2025OFI 1–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1

Leading scorers: Aris Thessalonikis and OFI

Aris Thessalonikis

  • Fabiano2 goals

OFI

  • K. Kodro2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.