30 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus Super League 1 prediction & result

Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Tripoli
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Asteras Tripolis 0-1 Olympiakos Piraeus.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Asteras Tripolis, 29% draw, 36% Olympiakos Piraeus — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Olympiakos Piraeus at 36% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Asteras Tripolis0%Draw4%Olympiakos Piraeus96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
Panagiotis Retsos
31'
⚽Jota Silvaassist: M. Saliakas
Kalvin Ketu
39'
Dimitris Kourbelis
41'
Franco Orozco
45'
🔁J. Bartoloout: B. Perez
46'
58'
Santiago Hezze
🔁F. Orozcoout: B. Kimpioka
60'
64'
🔁M. Saliakasout: Z. Smajlovic
69'
🔁Jota Silvaout: G. Martins
69'
🔁J. Rocaout: A. Gonzalez
🔁Ricardinhoout: F. Macheda
75'
🔁K. Ketuout: N. Kaltsas
75'
75'
🔁L. Scipioniout: G. Sa
75'
🔁A. El Kaabiout: R. Freuler
🔁G. Kotsirasout: A. Papakanellos
82'
87'
Remo Freuler
90+3'
Nair Tiknizyan

Match stats — Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus

50%Possession50%
10Shots15
3On target7
3Corners6
0.83xG1.7

Goals against chances

Asteras Tripolis0 from 0.83 xGless than the chances were worth
Olympiakos Piraeus1 from 1.70 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Asteras Tripolis 4-1-4-1
  • 1N. PapadopoulosG
  • 27G. KotsirasD
  • 74D. LaskarisD
  • 32J. SilvaD
  • 28A. MendezD
  • 21D. KourbelisM
  • 19F. OrozcoM
  • 7J. BartoloM
  • 10E. GonzalezM
  • 11K. Ketu
  • 39RicardinhoF
Substitutes
  • 61V. ChatziemmanouilG
  • 91T. KakadiarisG
  • 17A. TereziouF
  • 6K. ChrysopoulosD
  • 16F. BrorssonD
  • 8G. BouzoukisM
  • 80B. Perez
  • 23A. RieraM
  • 44A. PapakanellosM
Coach: Georgios Antonopoulos
Olympiakos Piraeus 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. OrtegaG
  • 2M. SaliakasD
  • 45P. RetsosD
  • 5L. PirolaD
  • 71N. TiknizyanD
  • 32S. HezzeM
  • 16L. ScipioniM
  • 20Jota SilvaM
  • 22ChiquinhoM
  • 73J. RocaM
  • 9A. El KaabiF
Substitutes
  • 31B. PopovicG
  • 6D. CarmoD
  • 70B. OnyemaechiD
  • 4Z. SmajlovicD
  • 14D. GarciaM
  • 8G. SaM
  • 96C. MouzakitisM
  • 19R. FreulerM
  • 7K. FortounisM
Coach: Luis Mendilibar Jose

Form going into Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus

Asteras Tripolis

  • L1-3away to Panetolikos23 August 2026

Olympiakos Piraeus

  • W1-0Atromitos22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Asteras Tripolis401327-51
6Olympiakos Piraeus421132+17

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus

  • 30 August 2026Asteras Tripolis 0–1 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
  • 4 February 2026Asteras Tripolis 0–3 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
  • 24 September 2025Asteras Tripolis 1–2 Olympiakos PiraeusCup
  • 23 August 2025Olympiakos Piraeus 2–0 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
  • 9 February 2025Olympiakos Piraeus 1–1 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
  • 27 October 2024Asteras Tripolis 1–0 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1

Leading scorers: Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus

Asteras Tripolis

  • F. Macheda1 goals1 assists

Olympiakos Piraeus

  • Jota Silva2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.