13 September 2026, 15:15 UTC

Avellino vs Palermo Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Avellino
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Avellino 1-1 Palermo.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Avellino, 28% draw, 32% Palermo — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Avellino at 40% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Avellino4%Draw92%Palermo4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Tommaso Cancellottiout: Filippo Missori
16'
35'
Mattia Bani
Filippo Missori
56'
🔁Luca Pandolfiout: Walid Cheddira
57'
59'
🔁Emmanuel Gyasiout: Dennis Johnsen
59'
🔁Jacopo Segreout: Nahuel Estévez
⚽Walid Cheddiraassist: Raffaele Russo
60'
63'
⚽Dennis Johnsenassist: Joel Pohjanpalo
76'
🔁Filippo·Ranocchiaout: Claudio Gomes
77'
🔁Joel Pohjanpaloout: Alessandro Gabrielloni
Michael Venturi
84'
🔁Brando Moruzziout: Marco Sala
86'
🔁L. Di Maggioout: Dimitrios Sounas
86'
🔁Raffaele Russoout: Tommaso Biasci
87'
87'
🔁Tommaso Cassandroout: Niccolo Pierozzi

Match stats — Avellino vs Palermo

47%Possession53%
15Shots9
5On target2
4Corners3

Line-ups

Avellino 3-5-2
  • 50T. MartinelliG
  • 4A. IzzoD
  • 23M. VenturiD
  • 56P. EnriciD
  • 29T. CancellottiM
  • 20M. PalumboM
  • 39M. BesaggioM
  • 8L. Di MaggioM
  • 27B. MoruzziM
  • 7L. PandolfiF
  • 10R. RussoF
Substitutes
  • 77S. Di PaoloF
  • 30E. AdamoM
  • 18Thomas BerenbruchM
  • 14T. BiasciF
  • 9W. CheddiraF
  • 5A. Di BitontoD
  • 16G. FaticantiM
  • 1A. IannarilliG
  • 2F. MissoriD
Coach: A. Nesta
Palermo 3-4-2-1
  • 14M. FortinG
  • 84T. CassandroD
  • 13M. BaniD
  • 93F. BarbaD
  • 11E. GyasiM
  • 8J. SegreM
  • 10F. RanocchiaM
  • 3T. AugelloM
  • 5A. PalumboM
  • 9D. VavassoriM
  • 20J. PohjanpaloF
Substitutes
  • 63N. BalagušsG
  • 33A. BozzolanD
  • 32P. CeccaroniD
  • 24N. EstévezM
  • 99A. GabrielloniF
  • 6C. GomesM
  • 96G. MagnaniD
  • 12M. NespolaG
  • 27N. PierozziD
Coach: F. Inzaghi

Form going into Avellino vs Palermo

Avellino

  • W1-0away to Modena6 September 2026
  • W3-0Vicenza Virtus29 August 2026
  • L1-2Arezzo22 August 2026

Palermo

  • W3-1Sampdoria7 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Arezzo30 August 2026
  • W1-0Juve Stabia23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Avellino421163+37
2Palermo431084+410

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Avellino vs Palermo

  • 13 September 2026Avellino 1–1 PalermoSerie B
  • 5 April 2026Palermo 2–0 AvellinoSerie B
  • 20 December 2025Avellino 2–2 PalermoSerie B
  • 13 March 2022Avellino 1–2 PalermoSerie C - Girone C
  • 31 October 2021Palermo 1–1 AvellinoSerie C - Girone C
  • 26 May 2021Avellino 1–0 PalermoSerie C - Girone A

Leading scorers: Avellino and Palermo

Avellino

  • R. Russo2 goals1 assists
  • M. Besaggio2 goals

Palermo

  • D. Johnsen3 goals2 assists
  • J. Pohjanpalo1 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.