13 September 2026, 15:15 UTC

Avellino vs Palermo Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Avellino
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Avellino 1-1 Palermo.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Avellino, 28% draw, 32% Palermo — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Avellino at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Avellino4%Draw92%Palermo4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Tommaso Cancellottiout: Filippo Missori
16'
35'
Mattia Bani
Filippo Missori
56'
🔁Luca Pandolfiout: Walid Cheddira
57'
59'
🔁Emmanuel Gyasiout: Dennis Johnsen
59'
🔁Jacopo Segreout: Nahuel Estévez
⚽Walid Cheddiraassist: Raffaele Russo
60'
63'
⚽Dennis Johnsenassist: Joel Pohjanpalo
76'
🔁Filippo·Ranocchiaout: Claudio Gomes
77'
🔁Joel Pohjanpaloout: Alessandro Gabrielloni
Michael Venturi
84'
🔁Brando Moruzziout: Marco Sala
86'
🔁L. Di Maggioout: Dimitrios Sounas
86'
🔁Raffaele Russoout: Tommaso Biasci
87'
87'
🔁Tommaso Cassandroout: Niccolo Pierozzi

Match stats — Avellino vs Palermo

47%Possession53%
15Shots9
5On target2
4Corners3

Line-ups

Avellino 3-5-2
  • 50T. MartinelliG
  • 4A. IzzoD
  • 23M. VenturiD
  • 56P. EnriciD
  • 29T. CancellottiM
  • 20M. PalumboM
  • 39M. BesaggioM
  • 8L. Di MaggioM
  • 27B. MoruzziM
  • 7L. PandolfiF
  • 10R. RussoF
Substitutes
  • 77S. Di PaoloF
  • 30E. AdamoM
  • 18Thomas BerenbruchM
  • 14T. BiasciF
  • 9W. CheddiraF
  • 5A. Di BitontoD
  • 16G. FaticantiM
  • 1A. IannarilliG
  • 2F. MissoriD
Coach: A. Nesta
Palermo 3-4-2-1
  • 14M. FortinG
  • 84T. CassandroD
  • 13M. BaniD
  • 93F. BarbaD
  • 11E. GyasiM
  • 8J. SegreM
  • 10F. RanocchiaM
  • 3T. AugelloM
  • 5A. PalumboM
  • 9D. VavassoriM
  • 20J. PohjanpaloF
Substitutes
  • 63N. BalagušsG
  • 33A. BozzolanD
  • 32P. CeccaroniD
  • 24N. EstévezM
  • 99A. GabrielloniF
  • 6C. GomesM
  • 96G. MagnaniD
  • 12M. NespolaG
  • 27N. PierozziD
Coach: F. Inzaghi

Form going into Avellino vs Palermo

Avellino

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Modena6 September 2026
  • W3-0Vicenza Virtus29 August 2026
  • L1-2Arezzo22 August 2026

Palermo

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1Sampdoria7 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Arezzo30 August 2026
  • W1-0Juve Stabia23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Avellino114431611+516
1Palermo118302513+1227

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Avellino vs Palermo

  • 5 April 2026Palermo 2–0 AvellinoSerie B
  • 20 December 2025Avellino 2–2 PalermoSerie B
  • 13 March 2022Avellino 1–2 PalermoSerie C - Girone C
  • 31 October 2021Palermo 1–1 AvellinoSerie C - Girone C
  • 26 May 2021Avellino 1–0 PalermoSerie C - Girone A

Leading scorers: Avellino and Palermo

Avellino

GoalsAssists

  • R. Russo52
  • M. Besaggio30

Palermo

GoalsAssists

  • D. Johnsen75
  • D. Vavassori61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Avellino and Palermo drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Avellino at 40% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Walid Cheddira 60' for Avellino, Dennis Johnsen 63' for Palermo.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.