Padova vs Ascoli Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Padova 1-0 Ascoli.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Padova, 29% draw, 32% Ascoli — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Padova at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Padova vs Ascoli
Line-ups
- 22A. SorrentinoG
- 27Alessandro DellavalleD
- 5M. LovatoD
- 58C. PastinaD
- 24L. CarissoniM
- 14M. PompettiM
- 21E. ZuelliM
- 7K. VarasM
- 23F. Di MarianoM
- 15K. LasagnaF
- 9L. MoroF
- 25N. GalazziM
- 8P. FusiM
- 6G. GiuntiM
- 1L. MouquetG
- 11A. SeghettiF
- 32F. SgarbiD
- 18E. SillettiD
- 20M. BortolussiF
- 17A. CapelliM
- 1S. VitaleG
- 62T. MilaneseD
- 30M. CuradoD
- 33N. RizzoD
- 19A. GuiébréD
- 8G. CorradiniM
- 4S. DamianiM
- 21G. De PieriM
- 77D. BolsiusM
- 15S. D'UffiziM
- 9A. ChakirF
- 99Matteo BrunoriF
- 45G. CrespiG
- 17F. DiamantiD
- 32F. GattoniD
- 35G. GoriF
- 18L. Lo ScalzoM
- 3M. NicolettiD
- 14A. OliveriM
- 11S. PerciunM
Form going into Padova vs Ascoli
Padova
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Cremonese6 September 2026
- D1-1Hellas Verona29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Pisa23 August 2026
Ascoli
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Benevento5 September 2026
- D1-1Carrarese29 August 2026
- W2-1away to Hellas Verona23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Padova | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 15 |
| 3 | Ascoli | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Padova vs Ascoli
- 2 April 2019Padova 1–2 AscoliSerie B
- 10 November 2018Ascoli 2–3 PadovaSerie B
Leading scorers: Padova and Ascoli
Padova
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Ascoli
GoalsAssists
- A. Silipo41
- G. Gori32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Padova beat Ascoli 1–0. The model had made a win for Padova its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Nicolas Galazzi 63' for Padova.
How the call on Padova v Ascoli has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 28% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 39% / 29% / 32%: the biggest move is Padova's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Padova win39%▼ −3
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Ascoli win32%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.