12 September 2026, 13:00 UTC

Padova vs Ascoli Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Euganeo, Padova
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Padova 1-0 Ascoli.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Padova, 29% draw, 32% Ascoli — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Padova at 39% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Padova96%Draw4%Ascoli0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

N. Calabro
33'
🔁Marco Pompettiout: Nicolas Galazzi
45'
🔁Francesco Di Marianoout: Matteo Cocchi
45'
Emanuele Zuelli
53'
🔁Christian Pastinaout: Alessandro Capelli
56'
59'
Giacomo De Pieri
Alessandro Dellavalle
59'
🔁Kevin Lasagnaout: Gianluca Caprari
60'
62'
Nicholas Rizzo
⚽Nicolas Galazziassist: Matteo Cocchi
63'
71'
🔁Giacomo De Pieriout: Andrea·Silipo
72'
🔁Don Bolsiusout: Matteo Brunori
72'
🔁amine chakirout: Gabriele Gori
72'
🔁Tommaso Milaneseout: Andrea Oliveri
🔁Kevin Varasout: Pietro Fusi
72'
Pietro Fusi
77'
82'
🔁Samuele Damianiout: Gennao Acampora
Alessandro Capelli
90'

Match stats — Padova vs Ascoli

35%Possession65%
11Shots20
4On target5
2Corners8

Line-ups

Padova 3-5-2
  • 22A. SorrentinoG
  • 27Alessandro DellavalleD
  • 5M. LovatoD
  • 58C. PastinaD
  • 24L. CarissoniM
  • 14M. PompettiM
  • 21E. ZuelliM
  • 7K. VarasM
  • 23F. Di MarianoM
  • 15K. LasagnaF
  • 9L. MoroF
Substitutes
  • 25N. GalazziM
  • 8P. FusiM
  • 6G. GiuntiM
  • 1L. MouquetG
  • 11A. SeghettiF
  • 32F. SgarbiD
  • 18E. SillettiD
  • 20M. BortolussiF
  • 17A. CapelliM
Coach: N. Calabro
Ascoli 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. VitaleG
  • 62T. MilaneseD
  • 30M. CuradoD
  • 33N. RizzoD
  • 19A. GuiébréD
  • 8G. CorradiniM
  • 4S. DamianiM
  • 21G. De PieriM
  • 77D. BolsiusM
  • 15S. D'UffiziM
  • 9A. ChakirF
Substitutes
  • 99Matteo BrunoriF
  • 45G. CrespiG
  • 17F. DiamantiD
  • 32F. GattoniD
  • 35G. GoriF
  • 18L. Lo ScalzoM
  • 3M. NicolettiD
  • 14A. OliveriM
  • 11S. PerciunM
Coach: Francesco Tomei

Form going into Padova vs Ascoli

Padova

  • L1-3away to Cremonese6 September 2026
  • D1-1Hellas Verona29 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Pisa23 August 2026

Ascoli

  • W1-0Benevento5 September 2026
  • D1-1Carrarese29 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Hellas Verona23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Padova42114407
7Ascoli421143+17

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Padova vs Ascoli

  • 12 September 2026Padova 1–0 AscoliSerie B
  • 2 April 2019Padova 1–2 AscoliSerie B
  • 10 November 2018Ascoli 2–3 PadovaSerie B
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.