13 September 2026, 15:15 UTC

Mantova vs Sampdoria Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Mantova 2-0 Sampdoria.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Mantova, 29% draw, 29% Sampdoria — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Mantova at 42% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Mantova99%Draw1%Sampdoria0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Fahem Benaissa Yahia
16'
28'
Lorenzo Insigne
Francesco Modesto
43'
44'
Liam Henderson
45'
🔁Tjas Begicout: Oliver Abildgaard
🔁Ettore Gliozziout: Vanja Vlahovic
55'
🔁Lorenzo Ignacchitiout: Jean-Pierre Longonda Itamba Mboyo
55'
57'
🔁Gennaro Tutinoout: Tobias Lauritsen
⚽Francesco Ruoccoassist: Alessio Castellini
58'
64'
⚽Tobias Lauritsen (pen)
⚽Jean-Pierre Longonda Itamba Mboyoassist: Rares Ilie
66'
🔁Rares Ilieout: Davide Bragantini
72'
🔁Francesco Ruoccoout: Ismael Cajazzo
72'
72'
🔁Liam Hendersonout: Yann Karamoh
72'
🔁Lorenzo Insigneout: Danel Sinani

Match stats — Mantova vs Sampdoria

51%Possession49%
10Shots13
5On target2
5Corners5

Line-ups

Mantova 3-4-2-1
  • 22F. BardiG
  • 5B. TomaševićD
  • 29S. CellaD
  • 27A. CastelliniD
  • 41Jonathan SilvaM
  • 25L. IgnacchitiM
  • 80R. KoudaM
  • 50F. Benaissa-YahiaM
  • 8R. IlieM
  • 19F. RuoccoM
  • 9E. GliozziF
Substitutes
  • 71Federico ChinettiF
  • 1L. GemelloG
  • 30D. BragantiniF
  • 75E. KošpoD
  • 58Tommaso Del LungoD
  • 11I. CajazzoM
  • 18S. KeitaM
  • 20F. PaolettiM
  • 10D. WieserM
Coach: F. Modesto
Sampdoria 4-2-3-1
  • 1P. VindahlG
  • 29A. Di PardoD
  • 3S. GartenmannD
  • 15F. Delli CarriD
  • 7M. CicconiD
  • 6L. HendersonM
  • 45A. MakoumbouM
  • 11T. BegićM
  • 16Y. VerschaerenM
  • 10L. InsigneM
  • 99G. TutinoF
Substitutes
  • 14Yann KaramohF
  • 9T. LauritsenF
  • 43K. MbabuD
  • 25A. FerrariD
  • 13L. RavanelliD
  • 28O. AbildgaardM
  • 12Andrey KrastevG
  • 96S. MassoloG
  • 20D. SinaniF
Coach: B. Corradi

Form going into Mantova vs Sampdoria

Mantova

  • D1-1away to Cesena6 September 2026
  • W3-1Empoli30 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Carrarese22 August 2026

Sampdoria

  • L1-3away to Palermo7 September 2026
  • L1-2Juve Stabia29 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Cesena23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Mantova431083+510
20Sampdoria401338-51

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Mantova vs Sampdoria

  • 13 September 2026Mantova 2–0 SampdoriaSerie B
  • 21 February 2026Mantova 2–1 SampdoriaSerie B
  • 2 November 2025Sampdoria 0–1 MantovaSerie B
  • 25 January 2025Mantova 2–2 SampdoriaSerie B
  • 27 October 2024Sampdoria 1–0 MantovaSerie B

Leading scorers: Mantova and Sampdoria

Mantova

  • F. Ruocco4 goals

Sampdoria

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.